PDF(Pubmed)
Abstract：
Migration\'s impact spans various social dimensions, including demography, sustainability, politics, economy, and gender disparities. Yet, the decision-making process behind migrants choosing their destination remains elusive. Existing models primarily rely on population size and travel distance to explain the spatial patterns of migration flows, overlooking significant population heterogeneities. Paradoxically, migrants often travel long distances and to smaller destinations if their diaspora is present in those locations. To address this gap, we propose the diaspora model of migration, incorporating intensity (the number of people moving to a country), and assortativity (the destination within the country). Our model considers only the existing diaspora sizes in the destination country, influencing the probability of migrants selecting a specific residence. Despite its simplicity, our model accurately reproduces the observed stable flow and distribution of migration in Austria (postal code level) and US metropolitan areas, yielding precise estimates of migrant inflow at various geographic scales. Given the increase in international migrations, this study enlightens our understanding of migration flow heterogeneities, helping design more inclusive, integrated cities.
摘要：
迁移的影响跨越各种社会维度，包括人口统计学,可持续性政治,经济,和性别差异。然而，移民选择目的地背后的决策过程仍然难以捉摸。现有模型主要依靠人口规模和旅行距离来解释迁移流的空间模式，忽略了显著的人口异质性。矛盾的是,移民经常长途跋涉，如果他们的侨民在这些地方，他们通常会前往较小的目的地。为了解决这个差距，我们提出了移民的侨民模型，结合强度(迁往一个国家的人数)，和多样性(国内的目的地)。我们的模型只考虑目的地国家现有的侨民规模，影响移民选择特定住所的概率。尽管它简单，我们的模型准确地再现了观察到的奥地利(邮政编码级别)和美国大都市地区的稳定移民流动和分布，对不同地理尺度的移民流入进行精确估计。鉴于国际移民的增加，这项研究启发了我们对迁移流异质性的理解，帮助设计更具包容性，一体化城市。
