PDF(Pubmed)
Abstract：
Climate change majorly impacts biodiversity in diverse regions across the world, including South Asia, a megadiverse area with heterogeneous climatic and vegetation regions. However, climate impacts on bats in this region are not well-studied, and it is unclear whether climate effects will follow patterns predicted in other regions. We address this by assessing projected near-future changes in climatically suitable areas for 110 bat species from South Asia. We used ensemble ecological niche modelling with four algorithms (random forests, artificial neural networks, multivariate adaptive regression splines and maximum entropy) to define climatically suitable areas under current conditions (1970-2000). We then extrapolated near future (2041-2060) suitable areas under four projected scenarios (combining two global climate models and two shared socioeconomic pathways, SSP2: middle-of-the-road and SSP5: fossil-fuelled development). Projected future changes in suitable areas varied across species, with most species predicted to retain most of the current area or lose small amounts. When shifts occurred due to projected climate change, new areas were generally northward of current suitable areas. Suitability hotspots, defined as regions suitable for >30% of species, were generally predicted to become smaller and more fragmented. Overall, climate change in the near future may not lead to dramatic shifts in the distribution of bat species in South Asia, but local hotspots of biodiversity may be lost. Our results offer insight into climate change effects in less studied areas and can inform conservation planning, motivating reappraisals of conservation priorities and strategies for bats in South Asia.
摘要：
气候变化主要影响世界各地不同地区的生物多样性，包括南亚,具有异质气候和植被区域的巨大差异区域。然而,气候对该地区蝙蝠的影响没有得到很好的研究，目前还不清楚气候影响是否会遵循其他地区预测的模式。我们通过评估南亚110种蝙蝠的气候适宜区域的近期变化来解决这一问题。我们使用集成生态位建模和四种算法(随机森林，人工神经网络,多元自适应回归样条和最大熵）来定义当前条件下（1970-2000年）的气候适宜区域。然后，我们在四个预测情景下（结合两个全球气候模型和两个共享的社会经济途径）推断了不久的将来（2041-2060）合适的区域，SSP2：道路中间和SSP5：化石燃料开发）。预计未来在合适地区的变化因物种而异，预计大多数物种会保留大部分当前区域或损失少量。当由于预计的气候变化而发生变化时，新地区通常在当前合适地区的北边。适宜热点,定义为适合>30%物种的区域，通常预计会变得更小、更分散。总的来说,在不久的将来，气候变化可能不会导致南亚蝙蝠物种分布的巨大变化，但是当地的生物多样性热点可能会消失。我们的结果提供了对研究较少的地区气候变化影响的见解，并可以为保护规划提供信息，激励对南亚蝙蝠的保护优先事项和战略的重新评估。
