PDF(Pubmed)
Abstract：
Most of life\'s decisions involve risk and uncertainty regarding whether reward or loss will follow. Decision makers often face uncertainty not only about the likelihood of outcomes (what are the chances that I will get a raise if I ask my supervisor? What are the chances that my supervisor will be upset with me for asking?) but also the magnitude of outcomes (if I do get a raise, how large will it be? If my supervisor gets upset, how bad will the consequences be for me?). Only a few studies have investigated economic decision making with ambiguous likelihoods, and even fewer have investigated ambiguous outcome magnitudes. In the present report, we investigated the effects of ambiguous outcome magnitude, risk, and gains/losses in an economic decision-making task with low stakes (Study 1; $3.60-$5.70; N = 367) and high stakes (Study 2; $6-$48; N = 210) using a within-subjects design. We conducted computational modeling to determine individuals\' preferences/aversions for ambiguous outcome magnitudes, risk, and gains/losses. We additionally investigated the association between trait anxiety and trait depression and decision-making parameters. Our results show that increasing stakes increased ambiguous gain aversion and unambiguous risk aversion but increased ambiguous sure loss preference; participants also became more averse to ambiguous sure gains relative to unambiguous risky gains. There were no significant effects of trait anxiety or trait depression on economic decision making. Our results suggest that as stakes increase, people tend to avoid uncertainty in the gain domain (especially ambiguous gains) but prefer ambiguous vs unambiguous sure losses.
摘要：
生活中的大多数决定都涉及风险和不确定性，即回报或损失是否会随之而来。决策者经常面临不确定性，不仅是结果的可能性（如果我问我的主管，我得到加薪的可能性是多少？我的主管会因为我的要求而对我感到不满的可能性是多少？），还有结果的大小（如果我得到加薪，会有多大？如果我的主管不高兴，后果对我有多糟糕？）。只有少数研究以模棱两可的可能性调查了经济决策，更少的人调查了模糊的结果幅度。在本报告中，我们调查了结果大小模糊的影响，风险，和收益/损失在低风险的经济决策任务（研究1；$3.60-$5.70；N=367）和高风险（研究2；$6-$48；N=210）使用学科内设计。我们进行了计算建模，以确定个人对模糊结果幅度的偏好/厌恶，风险，和收益/损失。我们还研究了特质焦虑和特质抑郁与决策参数之间的关系。我们的结果表明，增加的赌注增加了模糊的收益厌恶和明确的风险厌恶，但增加了模糊的肯定损失偏好；相对于明确的风险收益，参与者也变得更加厌恶模糊的肯定收益。特质焦虑或特质抑郁对经济决策没有显着影响。我们的结果表明，随着赌注的增加，人们倾向于避免收益域中的不确定性（尤其是模糊的收益），但更喜欢模糊与明确的肯定损失。
