PDF(Pubmed)
Abstract：
Reversing physical disinvestment, e.g., by remediating abandoned buildings and vacant lots, is an evidence-based strategy to reduce urban firearm violence. However, adoption of this strategy has been inconsistent across US cities. Our community-academic partnership sought to support adoption in Toledo, OH, USA, by generating locally relevant analyses on physical disinvestment and firearm violence. We used a spatial case-control design with matching. Physical disinvestment measures were derived from a citywide parcel foot audit conducted by the Lucas County Land Bank in summer 2021. Firearm violence outcomes were incident-level shootings data from the Toledo Police Department from October 2021 through February 2023. Shooting locations were matched to controls 1:4 on poverty rate, roadway characteristics, and zoning type. Exposures were calculated by aggregating parcels within 5-min walking buffers of each case and control point. We tested multiple disinvestment measures, including a composite index. Models were logistic regressions that adjusted for the matching variables and for potential spatial autocorrelation. Our sample included N = 281 shooting locations and N = 1124 matched controls. A 1-unit increase in the disinvestment score, equal to approximately 1 additional disrepair condition for the average parcel within the walking buffer, was associated with 1.68 times (95% CI: 1.36, 2.07) higher odds of shooting incidence. Across all other measures, greater disinvestment was associated with higher odds of shooting incidence. Our finding of a strong association between physical disinvestment and firearm violence in Toledo can inform local action. Community-academic partnership could help increase adoption of violence prevention strategies focused on reversing physical disinvestment.
摘要：
扭转实物投资，例如，通过修复废弃的建筑和空地，是减少城市枪支暴力的循证策略。然而,美国各城市对这一战略的采用一直不一致。我们的社区学术合作伙伴关系寻求支持托莱多的收养，OH,美国,通过对实物撤资和枪支暴力进行与当地相关的分析。我们使用了具有匹配的空间病例对照设计。实物撤资措施是根据卢卡斯县土地银行在2021年夏季进行的全市范围内的地块脚审计得出的。枪支暴力结果是2021年10月至2023年2月托莱多警察局的事件级枪击数据。射击地点与贫困率1:4的对照相匹配，巷道特性,和分区类型。通过在每种情况和控制点的5分钟步行缓冲区内汇总包裹来计算暴露量。我们测试了多项撤资措施，包括综合指数。模型是逻辑回归，对匹配变量和潜在的空间自相关进行了调整。我们的样本包括N=281个拍摄位置和N=1124个匹配的对照。撤资得分增加1个单位，等于步行缓冲区内平均包裹的大约1个额外的失修状况，与射击发生率高1.68倍(95%CI:1.36,2.07)相关。在所有其他措施中，更多的撤资与更高的射击发生率相关.我们发现托莱多的实物撤资与枪支暴力之间存在密切联系，可以为当地采取行动提供信息。社区-学术伙伴关系可以帮助更多地采用以扭转实际投资为重点的预防暴力战略。
