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Abstract：
Invasive species may occupy quite different environments in their invaded areas to native ones, which may intensively interfere with predicting potential distribution through ecological niche modeling (ENM). Here, we take the tomato leafminer Tuta absoluta Meyrick (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae), a tomato pest, as an example to investigate this topic. We analyzed niche expansion, stability, unfilling, and Schoener\'s D by principal component analysis (PCA) ordination method to examine its realized niche shifts and to explore how ENM approaches are affected by niche shifts. We used 5 datasets: Asian, African, European, South American, and global occurrence records in this study. Results showed that high niche unfilling for the species\' invaded areas in Asia (20%), Africa (12%), and Europe (37%), possibly due to T. absoluta being in the early stages of invasion. High niche expansion was observed in Asia (38%) and Europe (19%), implying that some European and Asian populations had reached new climatic areas. African niche had the most niche stability (94%) and was equivalent to the native one in climate space (PCA ordination method), but the n-dimensional climate space framework showed that they were different. When projecting the native model to Asia and Europe, the native model performed poorly, implying that the niche shifts affected the transferability of the native model. ENM based on global data outperformed than other models, and our results suggested that T. absoluta has a large potential distribution in Asia, Mexico, South Europe, the United States, and Australia. Meanwhile, we recommend updating ENMs based on the species\' invasion stage.
摘要：
入侵物种在其入侵地区可能占据与本地物种完全不同的环境，这可能会强烈干扰通过生态位建模(ENM)预测潜在分布。这里,我们以番茄造叶者TutaabsorutaMeyrick（鳞翅目：Gelehiidae）为例，番茄害虫,作为一个例子来研究这个话题。我们分析了利基扩张，稳定性,未填充,和Schoener的D通过主成分分析（PCA）排序方法来检查其实现的生态位变化，并探讨ENM方法如何受到生态位变化的影响。我们使用了5个数据集：亚洲，非洲,欧洲,南美,以及本研究中的全球发生记录。结果表明，亚洲物种入侵地区的高生态位消失(20%)，非洲（12%）欧洲（37%）可能是由于T.absoruta处于入侵的早期阶段。亚洲(38%)和欧洲(19%)的利基扩张程度很高，这意味着一些欧洲和亚洲人口已经达到了新的气候区。非洲生态位具有最大的生态位稳定性(94%)，相当于气候空间中的原生生态位(PCA排序法)，但是n维气候空间框架表明它们是不同的。当将本土模型投射到亚洲和欧洲时，原生模型表现不佳，这意味着生态位的变化影响了原生模型的可转移性。基于全局数据的ENM优于其他模型，我们的结果表明，T.absaluta在亚洲有很大的潜在分布，墨西哥,南欧,美国,和澳大利亚。同时,我们建议根据物种入侵阶段更新ENM。
