关键词: ROC curve area under curve aspartate aminotransferase dengue dengue hemorrhagic fever severe dengue

来  源:   DOI:10.2147/JMDH.S459929   PDF(Pubmed)

Abstract:
UNASSIGNED: The occurrence of dengue fever presents a considerable burden for public health care in developing countries. This study aims to validate APRI as predictor score for severity of dengue fever so that catastrophic events could be prevented, and early triage can save lives.
UNASSIGNED: The retrospective cross-sectional study was done on dengue positive patients from August to November 2023. APRI score was calculated for every patient at the time of admission. The primary end-point was non-complicated disease (Simple dengue fever) vs complicated disease (dengue hemorrhagic fever and dengue shock syndrome). ROC curve was used to identify the role of APRI in prediction of dengue complication. Youden index was used to find the cut-off value of APRI along with sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative likelihood ratios. To further evaluate the role of APRI score, patients were divided into two groups, patients with APRI score greater and lesser than cut-off value. The qualitative variables among two groups were compared by chi-square testing. The predictors of complicated dengue were first determined by univariate regression analysis and then confirmed by multivariate regression analysis.
UNASSIGNED: The mean APRI score of 135 patients was 20.06 ± 6.31. AUC for APRI score was 0.93 (p < 0.0001) indicating that APRI score calculated at the time of admission is an excellent marker in determining the complicated dengue. The cut-off value for APRI score was 9.04 (sensitivity 84.91%, specificity 89.02%, p < 0.0001). The patients with APRI <9.04 mostly developed simple dengue fever (54.1%) vs DHF (4.4%) and DSS (1.5%), while patients with APRI >9.04 had more DHF (20.7%) and DSS (12.6%) vs simple dengue fever (6.7%). None of the patient died with APRI <9.04 while the mortality rate was 3.7% in patients with APRI >9.04.
UNASSIGNED: The APRI score, calculated at the time of admission, is an excellent marker in determining the severe dengue.
摘要:
登革热的发生给发展中国家的公共卫生保健带来了相当大的负担。这项研究旨在验证APRI作为登革热严重程度的预测评分,以便可以预防灾难性事件。早期分诊可以挽救生命。
对2023年8月至11月的登革热阳性患者进行了回顾性横断面研究。在入院时计算每位患者的APRI评分。主要终点为非复杂性疾病(单纯性登革热)与复杂性疾病(登革热出血热和登革热休克综合征)。应用ROC曲线确定APRI在登革热并发症预测中的作用。Youden指数用于查找APRI的截止值以及灵敏度,特异性,正负似然比。为了进一步评估APRI评分的作用,患者分为两组,APRI评分大于和小于临界值的患者。采用卡方检验比较两组的定性变量。首先通过单因素回归分析确定复杂登革热的预测因子,然后通过多元回归分析确定。
135例患者的平均APRI评分为20.06±6.31。APRI评分的AUC为0.93(p<0.0001),表明在入院时计算的APRI评分是确定复杂登革热的极好标记。APRI评分的临界值为9.04(敏感性为84.91%,特异性89.02%,p<0.0001)。APRI<9.04的患者多发生单纯性登革热(54.1%),DHF(4.4%)和DSS(1.5%),而APRI>9.04的患者DHF(20.7%)和DSS(12.6%)高于单纯登革热(6.7%)。APRI<9.04的患者均无死亡,而APRI>9.04的患者死亡率为3.7%。
APRI得分,在入院时计算,是确定严重登革热的极好标记。
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