PDF(Pubmed)
Abstract：
Infectious diseases have long been a shaping force in human history, necessitating a comprehensive understanding of their dynamics. This study introduces a co-evolution model that integrates both epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics. Utilizing a system of differential equations, the model represents the interactions among susceptible, infected, and recovered populations for both ancestral and evolved viral strains. Methodologically rigorous, the model\'s existence and uniqueness have been verified, and it accommodates both deterministic and stochastic cases. A myriad of graphical techniques have been employed to elucidate the model\'s dynamics. Beyond its theoretical contributions, this model serves as a critical instrument for public health strategy, particularly predicting future outbreaks in scenarios where viral mutations compromise existing interventions.
摘要：
传染病在人类历史上一直是一股塑造力量,需要全面了解它们的动态。本研究引入了一个整合流行病学和进化动力学的共同进化模型。利用微分方程组，该模型代表了易感人群之间的相互作用，感染,并恢复了祖先和进化病毒株的种群。方法严谨,验证了模型的存在性和唯一性,它既适用于确定性的情况，也适用于随机的情况。已经采用了无数的图形技术来阐明模型的动力学。除了其理论贡献，该模型是公共卫生战略的重要工具，特别是在病毒突变危及现有干预措施的情况下预测未来的疫情。
