PDF(Pubmed)
Abstract：
Japanese plum, like other temperate fruit tree species, has cultivar-specific temperature requirements during dormancy for proper flowering. Knowing the temperature requirements of this species is of increasing interest due to the great genetic variability that exists among the available Japanese plum-type cultivars, since most of them are interspecific hybrids. The reduction of winter chilling caused by climate change is threatening their cultivation in many regions. In this work, the adaptation perspectives of 21 Japanese plum-type cultivars were analyzed in two of the main plum-growing regions in Spain, Badajoz and Zaragoza, to future climate conditions. Endodormancy release for subsequent estimation of chilling and heat requirements was determined through empirical experiments conducted during dormancy at least over two years. Chill requirements were calculated using three models [chilling hours (CH), chilling units (CU) and chilling portions (CP)] and heat requirements using growing degree hours (GDH). Chilling requirements ranged 277-851 CH, 412-1,030 CU and 26-51 CP, and heat requirements ranged from 4,343 to 9,525 GDH. The potential adaption of the cultivars to future warmer conditions in both regions was assessed using climate projections under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), RCP4.5 (effective reduction of greenhouse gas emissions) and RCP8.5 (continuous increase in greenhouse gas emissions), in two time horizons, from the middle to the end of 21st century, with temperature projections from 15 Global Climate Models. The probability of satisfying the estimated cultivar-specific chilling requirements in Badajoz was lower than in Zaragoza, because of the lower chill availability predicted. In this region, the cultivars analyzed herein may have limited cultivation because the predicted reduction in winter chill may result in the chilling requirements not being successfully fulfilled.
摘要：
日本李子，像其他温带果树一样，在休眠期间具有特定品种的温度要求，以实现适当的开花。由于可用的日本李子型品种之间存在巨大的遗传变异性，因此知道该物种的温度要求越来越受到人们的关注，因为它们大多数是种间杂种。气候变化导致的冬季寒冷减少正在威胁许多地区的种植。在这项工作中,在西班牙两个主要的李子种植区分析了21个日本李子型品种的适应前景，巴达霍斯和萨拉戈萨,未来的气候条件。通过在至少两年的休眠期间进行的经验实验，确定了内部休眠释放，以用于随后估计的冷却和热量需求。使用三种模型计算冷却需求[冷却小时(CH)，冷却单元（CU）和冷却部分（CP）]和热量要求使用增长的小时数（GDH）。冷却要求范围为277-851CH，412-1,030CU和26-51CP,热量需求范围从4,343到9,525GDH。在两个代表性浓度路径（RCP）下，使用气候预测评估了品种对两个地区未来温暖条件的潜在适应，RCP4.5（有效减少温室气体排放）和RCP8.5（持续增加温室气体排放），在两个时间范围内，从21世纪中叶到21世纪末，来自15个全球气候模型的温度预测。在巴达霍斯，满足估计的特定品种冷藏需求的可能性低于萨拉戈萨，因为预测的寒冷可用性较低。在这个地区,例如,本文分析的品种可能具有有限的栽培,因为预测的冬季寒冷的减少可能导致不能成功地满足冷藏要求。
