Abstract：
The petrochemical industry is a major industrial emitter of greenhouse gas (CO2) and environmental pollution, posing health risks to nearby communities. Although previous studies have indicated that residents living near petrochemical industrial complexes are at a higher risk of cancer, they have focused on local or regional burdens. This study aimed to estimate the global cancer burden attributable to residential exposure to petrochemical industrial complexes. The geographical coordinates of petrochemical plants and oil refineries were retrieved and verified from published sources. The ArcGIS software and global population data were used to estimate the number of people living within specific distances (exposed population). The exposure time window was framed as ranging from 1992 to 2035, extending to the latest period of the exposure time window for all cancer types to estimate the attributable deaths between 2020 and 2040. The relative risk of cancer was estimated from 15 published studies. Population attributable fraction (PAF) method was used to estimate the risk of cancer attributable to residential exposure and calculate the number of cancer-related deaths. Our findings indicate that >300 million people worldwide will be estimated to live near petrochemical industrial complexes by 2040. The overall global burden of cancer-related deaths was 19,083 in 2020, and it is estimated to increase to 27,366 deaths by 2040. The region with the highest attributable cancer deaths due to exposure is the high-income region, which had 10,584 deaths in 2020 and is expected to reach 13,414 deaths by 2040. Residential exposure to petrochemical industrial complexes could contribute to global cancer deaths, even if the proportion is relatively small, and proactive measures are required to mitigate the cancer burdens among these residents. Enforcing emissions regulations, improving monitoring, educating communities, and fostering collaboration are vital to protecting residents\' health.
摘要：
石化工业是温室气体(CO2)和环境污染的主要工业排放国,对附近社区构成健康风险。尽管先前的研究表明，居住在石化工业园区附近的居民患癌症的风险更高，他们专注于地方或区域负担。这项研究旨在估计由于居民暴露于石化工业综合体而导致的全球癌症负担。从已发布的来源检索并验证了石化厂和炼油厂的地理坐标。ArcGIS软件和全球人口数据用于估计生活在特定距离内的人数（暴露人口）。暴露时间窗口的范围为1992年至2022年，延伸到所有癌症类型的暴露时间窗口的最新时期，以估计2020年至2040年之间的可归因死亡人数。从15项已发表的研究中估计了癌症的相对风险。使用人口归因分数（PAF）方法来估计可归因于住宅暴露的癌症风险，并计算与癌症相关的死亡人数。我们的研究结果表明，到2040年，全球将有超过3亿人居住在石化工业园区附近。全球癌症相关死亡的总体负担为19,083例，估计到2040年将增加到27,366例死亡。由于暴露导致癌症死亡人数最高的地区是高收入地区，2020年有10584人死亡，预计到2040年将达到13414人死亡。住宅暴露于石化工业园区可能导致全球癌症死亡，即使比例相对较小，需要采取积极措施减轻这些居民的癌症负担。执行排放法规，改进监测,教育社区，促进合作对保护居民健康至关重要。
