PDF(Pubmed)
Abstract：
Social distancing strategies have been adopted by governments to manage the COVID-19 pandemic, since the first outbreak began. However, further epidemic waves keep out the return of economic and social activities to their standard levels of intensity. Social distancing interventions based on control theory are needed to consider a formal dynamic characterization of the implemented SIR-type model to avoid unrealistic objectives and prevent further outbreaks. The objective of this work is twofold: to fully understand some dynamical aspects of SIR-type models under control actions (associated with second waves) and, based on it, to propose a switching non-linear model predictive control that optimize the non-pharmaceutical measures strategy. Opposite to other strategies, the objective here is not just to minimize the number of infected individuals at any time, but to minimize the final size of the epidemic while minimizing the time of social restrictions and avoiding the infected prevalence peak to overpass a maximum established by the healthcare system capacity. Simulations illustrate the benefits of the aforementioned proposal.
摘要：
各国政府已经采取了社会距离战略来管理COVID-19大流行，自从第一次爆发以来。然而,进一步的流行病浪潮使经济和社会活动无法恢复到标准的强度水平。需要基于控制理论的社会距离干预措施，以考虑对已实施的SIR型模型进行正式的动态表征，以避免不切实际的目标并防止进一步的爆发。这项工作的目标是双重的：充分理解SIR型模型在控制作用（与第二波相关）下的一些动力学方面，在此基础上,提出一种优化非药物措施策略的切换非线性模型预测控制。与其他策略相反，这里的目标不仅仅是在任何时候尽量减少受感染的人数，但是要最大程度地减少流行病的最终规模，同时最大程度地减少社会限制的时间，并避免感染流行高峰超过医疗保健系统能力建立的最大值。模拟说明了上述建议的好处。
