Abstract：
The particulate matter with diameter of less than 2.5 µm (PM2.5) is an important risk factor for respiratory infectious diseases, such as scarlet fever, tuberculosis, and similar diseases. However, it is not clear which component of PM2.5 is more important for respiratory infectious diseases. Based on data from 31 provinces in mainland China obtained between 2013 and 2019, this study investigated the effects of different PM2.5 components, i.e., sulfate (SO42-), nitrate (NO3-), ammonium (NH4+), and organic matter (OM), and black carbon (BC), on respiratory infectious diseases incidence [pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB), scarlet fever (SF), influenza, hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD), and mumps]. Geographical probes and the Bayesian kernel machine regression (BKMR) model were used to investigate correlations, single-component effects, joint effects, and interactions between components, and subgroup analysis was used to assess regional and temporal heterogeneity. The results of geographical probes showed that the chemical components of PM2.5 were associated with the incidence of respiratory infectious diseases. BKMR results showed that the five components of PM2.5 were the main factors affecting the incidence of respiratory infectious diseases (PIP>0.5). The joint effect of influenza and mumps by co-exposure to the components showed a significant positive correlation, and the exposure-response curve for a single component was approximately linear. And single-component modelling revealed that OM and BC may be the most important factors influencing the incidence of respiratory infections. Moreover, respiratory infectious diseases in southern and southwestern China may be less affected by the PM2.5 component. This study is the first to explore the relationship between different components of PM2.5 and the incidence of five common respiratory infectious diseases in 31 provinces of mainland China, which provides a certain theoretical basis for future research.
摘要：
直径小于2.5μm的颗粒物(PM2.5)是呼吸道传染病的重要危险因素,如猩红热，结核病,类似的疾病。然而,目前尚不清楚PM2.5的哪个成分对呼吸道传染病更重要。本研究基于2013年至2019年中国大陆31个省份的数据,考察了不同PM2.5成分的影响,即，硫酸盐(SO42-)，硝酸盐（NO3-），铵（NH4+），和有机质(OM)，和黑碳（BC），关于呼吸道传染病发病率[肺结核（PTB），猩红热(SF),流感,手,脚,和口蹄疫（HFMD），和腮腺炎]。使用地理探针和贝叶斯核机回归（BKMR）模型来研究相关性，单成分效果，联合作用，以及组件之间的相互作用，亚组分析用于评估区域和时间异质性。地理探针的结果表明，PM2.5的化学成分与呼吸道传染病的发生有关。BKMR结果显示,PM2.5的5个成分是影响呼吸道传染病发病的主要因素(PIP>0.5)。流感和腮腺炎的联合作用通过共同暴露的成分表现出显著的正相关,单个组件的暴露-响应曲线近似线性。单成分模型显示，OM和BC可能是影响呼吸道感染高发生率的最重要因素。此外，中国南部和西南部的呼吸道传染病受PM2.5成分的影响可能较小。本研究首次探讨了我国31个省份PM2.5不同成分与5种常见呼吸道传染病发病的关系,为今后的研究提供了一定的理论基础。
