PDF(Pubmed)
Abstract：
BACKGROUND: Since December 2019, COVID-19 has spread rapidly around the world, and studies have shown that measures to prevent COVID-19 can largely reduce the spread of other infectious diseases. This study explored the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and interventions on the incidence of HFMD.
METHODS: We gathered data on the prevalence of HFMD from the Children\'s Hospital Affiliated to Zhengzhou University. An autoregressive integrated moving average model was constructed using HFMD incidence data from 2014 to 2019, the number of cases predicted from 2020 to 2022 was predicted, and the predicted values were compared with the actual measurements.
RESULTS: From January 2014 to October 2022, the Children\'s Hospital of Zhengzhou University admitted 103,995 children with HFMD. The average number of cases of HFMD from 2020 to 2022 was 4,946, a significant decrease from 14,859 cases from 2014 to 2019. We confirmed the best ARIMA (2,0,0) (1,1,0)12 model. From 2020 to 2022, the yearly number of cases decreased by 46.58%, 75.54%, and 66.16%, respectively, compared with the forecasted incidence. Trends in incidence across sexes and ages displayed patterns similar to those overall.
CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 outbreak and interventions reduced the incidence of HFMD compared to that before the outbreak. Strengthening public health interventions remains a priority in the prevention of HFMD.
METHODS: We gathered data on the prevalence of HFMD from the Children\'s Hospital Affiliated to Zhengzhou University. An autoregressive integrated moving average model was constructed using HFMD incidence data from 2014 to 2019, the number of cases predicted from 2020 to 2022 was predicted, and the predicted values were compared with the actual measurements.
RESULTS: From January 2014 to October 2022, the Children\'s Hospital of Zhengzhou University admitted 103,995 children with HFMD. The average number of cases of HFMD from 2020 to 2022 was 4,946, a significant decrease from 14,859 cases from 2014 to 2019. We confirmed the best ARIMA (2,0,0) (1,1,0)12 model. From 2020 to 2022, the yearly number of cases decreased by 46.58%, 75.54%, and 66.16%, respectively, compared with the forecasted incidence. Trends in incidence across sexes and ages displayed patterns similar to those overall.
CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 outbreak and interventions reduced the incidence of HFMD compared to that before the outbreak. Strengthening public health interventions remains a priority in the prevention of HFMD.
摘要：
背景：自2019年12月以来，COVID-19在全球范围内迅速传播，研究表明，预防COVID-19的措施可以在很大程度上减少其他传染病的传播。本研究探讨了COVID-19爆发和干预措施对手足口病发病率的影响。
方法：我们收集了郑州大学附属儿童医院的手足口病患病率数据。利用2014-2019年手足口病发病数据构建自回归综合移动平均模型,预测2020-2022年病例数,并将预测值与实际测量值进行比较。
结果：2014年1月至2022年10月，郑州大学儿童医院收治手足口病患儿103,995例。从2020年到2022年，手足口病的平均病例数为4,946例，比2014年到2019年的14,859例大幅下降。我们确认了最好的ARIMA(2,0,0)(1,1,0)12模型。从2020年到2022年，每年的病例数减少了46.58%，75.54%,和66.16%，分别,与预测的发病率相比。不同性别和年龄的发病率趋势显示出与总体相似的模式。
结论：与爆发前相比，COVID-19爆发和干预措施降低了手足口病的发病率。加强公共卫生干预仍然是预防手足口病的优先事项。
方法：我们收集了郑州大学附属儿童医院的手足口病患病率数据。利用2014-2019年手足口病发病数据构建自回归综合移动平均模型,预测2020-2022年病例数,并将预测值与实际测量值进行比较。
结果：2014年1月至2022年10月，郑州大学儿童医院收治手足口病患儿103,995例。从2020年到2022年，手足口病的平均病例数为4,946例，比2014年到2019年的14,859例大幅下降。我们确认了最好的ARIMA(2,0,0)(1,1,0)12模型。从2020年到2022年，每年的病例数减少了46.58%，75.54%,和66.16%，分别,与预测的发病率相比。不同性别和年龄的发病率趋势显示出与总体相似的模式。
结论：与爆发前相比，COVID-19爆发和干预措施降低了手足口病的发病率。加强公共卫生干预仍然是预防手足口病的优先事项。
