PDF(Pubmed)
Abstract：
Screening programs that pre-emptively and routinely test population groups for disease at a massive scale were first implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic in a handful of countries. One of these countries was Greece, which implemented a mass self-testing program during 2021. In contrast to most other non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), mass self-testing programs are particularly attractive for their relatively small financial and social burden, and it is therefore important to understand their effectiveness to inform policy makers and public health officials responding to future pandemics. This study aimed to estimate the number of deaths and hospitalizations averted by the program implemented in Greece and evaluate the impact of several operational decisions.
Granular data from the mass self-testing program deployed by the Greek government between April and December 2021 were obtained. The data were used to fit a novel compartmental model that was developed to describe the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic in Greece in the presence of self-testing. The fitted model provided estimates on the effectiveness of the program in averting deaths and hospitalizations. Sensitivity analyses were used to evaluate the impact of operational decisions, including the scale of the program, targeting of sub-populations, and sensitivity (i.e., true positive rate) of tests.
Conservative estimates show that the program reduced the reproduction number by 4%, hospitalizations by 25%, and deaths by 20%, translating into approximately 20,000 averted hospitalizations and 2,000 averted deaths in Greece between April and December 2021.
Mass self-testing programs are efficient NPIs with minimal social and financial burden; therefore, they are invaluable tools to be considered in pandemic preparedness and response.
Granular data from the mass self-testing program deployed by the Greek government between April and December 2021 were obtained. The data were used to fit a novel compartmental model that was developed to describe the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic in Greece in the presence of self-testing. The fitted model provided estimates on the effectiveness of the program in averting deaths and hospitalizations. Sensitivity analyses were used to evaluate the impact of operational decisions, including the scale of the program, targeting of sub-populations, and sensitivity (i.e., true positive rate) of tests.
Conservative estimates show that the program reduced the reproduction number by 4%, hospitalizations by 25%, and deaths by 20%, translating into approximately 20,000 averted hospitalizations and 2,000 averted deaths in Greece between April and December 2021.
Mass self-testing programs are efficient NPIs with minimal social and financial burden; therefore, they are invaluable tools to be considered in pandemic preparedness and response.
摘要：
在COVID-19大流行期间，首先在少数几个国家实施了大规模先发制人和常规检测人群疾病的筛查计划。其中一个国家是希腊，该公司在2021年实施了大规模自检计划。与大多数其他非药物干预措施(NPI)相比，大规模的自我测试计划对于其相对较小的财务和社会负担特别有吸引力，因此，重要的是要了解其有效性，以告知政策制定者和公共卫生官员应对未来的流行病。这项研究旨在估计希腊实施的计划避免的死亡人数和住院人数，并评估一些运营决策的影响。
■获得了希腊政府在2021年4月至12月之间部署的大规模自检计划的粒度数据。这些数据被用来拟合一种新的隔室模型，该模型是为了描述在存在自我检测的情况下希腊新冠肺炎大流行的动态而开发的。拟合模型提供了该计划在避免死亡和住院方面的有效性的估计。敏感性分析用于评估运营决策的影响，包括项目的规模，针对亚群，和灵敏度(即，真阳性率)测试。
■保守估计表明，该程序将再现次数减少了4％，25%的住院率，和20%的死亡，在2021年4月至12月期间，希腊约有20,000例避免住院和2,000例避免死亡。
■大规模自我测试计划是有效的NPI，社会和财务负担最小；因此，它们是在大流行准备和应对中需要考虑的宝贵工具。
■获得了希腊政府在2021年4月至12月之间部署的大规模自检计划的粒度数据。这些数据被用来拟合一种新的隔室模型，该模型是为了描述在存在自我检测的情况下希腊新冠肺炎大流行的动态而开发的。拟合模型提供了该计划在避免死亡和住院方面的有效性的估计。敏感性分析用于评估运营决策的影响，包括项目的规模，针对亚群，和灵敏度(即，真阳性率)测试。
■保守估计表明，该程序将再现次数减少了4％，25%的住院率，和20%的死亡，在2021年4月至12月期间，希腊约有20,000例避免住院和2,000例避免死亡。
■大规模自我测试计划是有效的NPI，社会和财务负担最小；因此，它们是在大流行准备和应对中需要考虑的宝贵工具。
