Abstract：
Urban flood risk assessment plays a crucial role in disaster prevention and mitigation. A scientifically accurate assessment and risk stratification method are of paramount importance for effective flood risk management. This study aims to propose a comprehensive urban flood risk assessment approach by coupling GeoDetector-Dematel and Clustering Method to enhance the accuracy of urban flood risk evaluation. Based on simulation results from hydraulic models and existing literature, the research established a set of urban flood risk assessment indicators comprising 10 metrics across two dimensions: hazard factors and vulnerability factors, among which vulnerability factors include exposure factors, sensitivity factors, and adaptability factors. Subsequently, the research introduced the GeoDetector-Dematel method to determine indicator weights, significantly enhancing the scientific rigor and precision of weight calculation. Finally, the research employed the K-means clustering method to risk zonation, providing a more scientifically rational depiction of the spatial distribution of urban flood risks. This novel comprehensive urban flood risk assessment method was applied in the Fangzhuang area of Beijing. The results demonstrated that this integrated approach effectively enhances the accuracy of urban flood risk assessment. In conclusion, this research offers a new methodology for urban flood risk assessment and contributes to decision-making in disaster prevention and control measures.
摘要：
城市洪涝灾害风险评估在防灾减灾中起着至关重要的作用。科学准确的评估和风险分层方法对于有效的洪水风险管理至关重要。本研究旨在通过结合GeoDetector-Dematel和聚类方法提出一种综合的城市洪水风险评估方法，以提高城市洪水风险评估的准确性。根据水力模型的仿真结果和现有文献，研究建立了一套城市洪水风险评估指标，包括危害因素和脆弱性因素两个维度的10个指标，其中脆弱性因素包括暴露因素，敏感性因素，和适应性因素。随后，研究引入了GeoDetector-Dematel方法来确定指标权重，显着提高了重量计算的科学严谨性和精度。最后,研究采用K-均值聚类方法进行风险区划，为城市洪水风险的空间分布提供了更科学合理的描述。这种新的城市洪水风险综合评估方法在北京方庄地区得到了应用。结果表明，该方法有效地提高了城市洪水风险评估的准确性。总之,该研究为城市洪水风险评估提供了一种新的方法，有助于灾害防治措施的决策。
