Abstract：
The urgent need for decarbonization in China\'s heating system, comprised of approximately one hundred thousand boilers, is imperative to meet climate and clean air objectives. To formulate national and regional strategies, we developed an integrated model framework that combines a facility-level emission inventory, the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model, and the Global Exposure Mortality Model (GEMM). We then explore the air quality and health benefits of alternative heating decarbonization pathways, including the retirement of coal-fired industrial boilers (CFIBs) for replacement with grid-bound heat supply systems, coal-to-gas conversion, and coal-to-biomass conversion. The gas replacement pathway shows the greatest potential for reducing PM2.5 concentration by 2.8 (2.3-3.4) μg/m3 by 2060, avoiding 23,100 (19,600-26,500) premature deaths. In comparison, the biomass replacement pathway offers slightly lower environmental and health benefits, but is likely to reduce costs by approximately two-thirds. Provincially, optimal pathways vary - Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Chongqing favor coal-to-gas conversion, while Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Inner Mongolia, and Shanxi show promise in CFIBs retirement. Henan leads in environmental and health benefits. Liaoning, Heilongjiang, and Jilin, rich in biomass resources, present opportunities for coal-to-biomass conversion.
摘要：
中国供热系统脱碳的迫切需要，由大约十万个锅炉组成，必须实现气候和清洁空气目标。制定国家和区域战略,我们开发了一个综合模型框架，结合了设施级排放清单，社区多尺度空气质量(CMAQ)模型，和全球暴露死亡率模型(GEMM)。然后，我们探索替代加热脱碳途径的空气质量和健康益处，包括燃煤工业锅炉（CFIB）的退役，以取代电网供热系统，煤制气转化，和煤转化为生物质。到2060年，气体置换途径显示出最大的潜力，可将PM2.5浓度降低2.8（2.3-3.4）μg/m3，避免23,100（19,600-26,500）例过早死亡。相比之下,生物质替代途径提供的环境和健康益处略低，但可能会降低成本约三分之二。省级,最优途径各不相同-新疆，四川,重庆赞成煤改气,而山东,河南,河北,内蒙古,山西在CFIB退休中显示出希望。河南在环境和健康效益方面领先。辽宁,黑龙江,吉林，丰富的生物质资源，为煤转化为生物质提供机会。
