PDF(Pubmed)
Abstract：
The ecological security of oasis cities in arid and semi-arid regions is highly susceptible to changes in regional landscape patterns and the degree of coordination between human activities and the environment. At the same time, the ecological security of urban landscapes also profoundly affects the success of regional economic and environmental coordination and development. This study is based on land use data from 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020, as well as land use data from the natural development scenario (NLD), economic development scenario (ECD), ecological development scenario (ELD) and ecological-economic development scenario (EED) simulated by the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model in 2030. From the perspective of production-living-ecological land (PLEL), it analyzes the changes in the past and future landscape ecological security and coupling coordination characteristics of Bole. The results show that from 1990 to 2020, Bole was mainly dominated by grassland ecological land (GEL) and other ecological land (OEL), accounting for a total proportion of 69.51%, with a large increase in production and living land area; the average value of landscape ecological risk is decreasing, and the landscape ecological security of Bole is developing towards benignity; the area of highly coupled coordination zone is decreasing continuously, while that of basic coordination zone and moderate coordination zone is increasing continuously. Under the 2030 EED scenario, the overall changes in various types of land use are not significant, and the average value of landscape ecological risk is the smallest, but it is higher than that in 2020 as a whole; under EED scenario, the area of highly coordinated zone and moderate coordinated zone is the largest among four scenarios, and the best coupling coordination level among the four scenarios. Landscape ecological security and its coupling coordination will be affected by land use patterns. Optimizing regional land use patterns is of great significance for improving urban landscape ecological security and sustainable high-quality development.
摘要：
干旱半干旱地区绿洲城市的生态安全极易受到区域景观格局变化和人类活动与环境协调程度的影响。同时,城市景观的生态安全也深刻地影响着区域经济与环境协调发展的成败。这项研究基于1990年，2000年，2010年和2020年的土地利用数据，以及自然发展情景（NLD）的土地利用数据，经济发展情景(ECD)，2030年通过斑块生成土地利用模拟（PLUS）模型模拟的生态发展情景（ELD）和生态经济发展情景（EED）。从生产-生活-生态用地(PLEL)的角度来看，分析了过去和未来博乐景观生态安全的变化和耦合协调特征。结果表明,1990~2020年,伯乐以草地生态用地(GEL)和其他生态用地(OEL)为主,占总比例69.51%，随着生产和生活用地面积的大量增加；景观生态风险的平均值正在降低，伯乐的景观生态安全正在向良性发展；高度耦合协调区的面积在不断减少，而基本协调区和中度协调区的数量在不断增加。在2030年EED情景下，各类土地利用总体变化不明显，景观生态风险的平均值最小，但总体上高于2020年；在EED情景下，高度协调区和中度协调区的面积在四种情况中最大，以及四种方案中最佳的耦合协调水平。土地利用格局会影响景观生态安全及其耦合协调。优化区域土地利用格局对于提升城市景观生态安全和可持续高质量发展具有重要意义。
