关键词: Generalized gamma distribution Iran-Iraq war Sulfur mustard Survival time

来  源:   DOI:10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e24535   PDF(Pubmed)

Abstract:
UNASSIGNED: The primary objective of this study was to analyze the long-term survival of 48,067 chemical warfare survivors who suffered from pulmonary, cutaneous, and ocular lesions in the decades following the Iran-Iraq war.
UNASSIGNED: The data for this study were obtained from the Veterans and Martyr Affair Foundation (VMAF) database. The survivors were divided into two groups based on whether they were evacuated/admitted (EA) to a hospital or not evacuated/admitted (NEA) to a hospital. The proportional hazard (PH) assumption for age categories, gender, exposure statuses, and eye severity was not satisfied. Therefore, we used a Generalized Gamma (GG) distribution with an Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) model for analysis.
UNASSIGNED: The study included a total of 48,067 observations, and among them, 4342 (9.03 %) died during the study period. The mean (SD) age of the survivors was 55.99 (7.9) years. The mortality rate increased with age, and higher rates were observed in males. Survival probabilities differed significantly among age categories, provinces, lung severity, and eye severity based on log-rank tests (p-value<0.05 for all). The GG model results showed that higher age and being male were associated with a shorter time to death. The study also found that the mortality rate was significantly higher in the EA group compared to the NEA group.
UNASSIGNED: The present study showed no significant difference in survival time between the EA and NEA groups. The findings suggest that pulmonary lesions caused by mustard gas are more likely to be fatal compared to skin and eye lesions. The results also indicate a potential association between survival time and the severity of lung damage.
摘要:
这项研究的主要目的是分析48,067名化学战幸存者的长期生存,皮肤,和眼部病变在伊朗-伊拉克战争后的几十年。
本研究的数据来自退伍军人和烈士事务基金会(VMAF)数据库。根据幸存者是被疏散/入院(EA)到医院还是未被疏散/入院(NEA)到医院,将其分为两组。年龄类别的比例风险(PH)假设,性别,暴露状态,和眼睛的严重程度不满意。因此,我们使用带有加速故障时间(AFT)模型的广义Gamma(GG)分布进行分析。
该研究共包括48,067个观察结果,其中,4342(9.03%)在研究期间死亡。幸存者的平均年龄(SD)为55.99(7.9)岁。死亡率随着年龄的增长而增加,男性发病率较高。不同年龄类别的生存概率差异显著,各省,肺严重程度,和基于对数秩检验的眼睛严重程度(全部p值<0.05)。GG模型结果表明,较高的年龄和男性与较短的死亡时间有关。研究还发现,EA组的死亡率明显高于NEA组。
本研究显示EA组和NEA组之间的生存时间没有显着差异。研究结果表明,与皮肤和眼睛病变相比,芥子气引起的肺部病变更可能致命。结果还表明生存时间与肺损伤的严重程度之间存在潜在关联。
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