METHODS: A total of 194 LS-SCLC patients without PCI treated between 2009 and 2021 were included. We conducted both univariate and multivariate analyses to pinpoint the factors associated with the development of BM. A nomogram for predicting the 2- and 3-year probabilities of BM was then constructed.
RESULTS: Univariate and multivariate analyses revealed several significant independent risk factors for the development of BM. These factors include TNM stage, the number of chemotherapy (ChT) cycles, Ki-67 expression level, pretreatment serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) levels, and haemoglobin (HGB) levels. These findings underscore their respective roles as independent predictors of BM. Based on the results of the final multivariable analysis, a nomogram model was created. In the training cohort, the nomogram yielded an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.870 at 2 years and 0.828 at 3 years. In the validation cohort, the AUC values were 0.897 at 2 years and 0.789 at 3 years. The calibration curve demonstrated good agreement between the predicted and observed probabilities of BM.
CONCLUSIONS: A novel nomogram has been developed to forecast the likelihood of BM in patients diagnosed with LS-SCLC. This tool holds the potential to assist healthcare professionals in formulating more informed and tailored treatment plans.
方法:纳入了2009年至2021年间未接受PCI治疗的194例LS-SCLC患者。我们进行了单变量和多变量分析,以查明与BM发展相关的因素。然后构造了用于预测BM的2年和3年概率的列线图。
结果:单变量和多变量分析揭示了发展BM的几个显著的独立危险因素。这些因素包括TNM阶段,化疗(ChT)周期数,Ki-67表达水平,预处理血清乳酸脱氢酶(LDH)水平,和血红蛋白(HGB)水平。这些发现强调了它们各自作为BM独立预测因子的作用。根据最终的多变量分析结果,创建了列线图模型。在训练组中,列线图显示,2年时受试者工作特征曲线下面积(AUC)为0.870,3年时为0.828.在验证队列中,2年和3年的AUC值分别为0.897和0.789.校准曲线表明BM的预测和观察到的概率之间具有良好的一致性。
结论:已经开发了一个新的列线图来预测诊断为LS-SCLC的患者发生BM的可能性。该工具具有协助医疗保健专业人员制定更知情和量身定制的治疗计划的潜力。