PDF(Pubmed)
Abstract：
BACKGROUND: The goal of this study was to evaluate the global burden of malignant skin melanoma (MSM) from 1990 to 2019 using MSM-related data from the Global Burden of Disease study.
METHODS: The incidences\' relationships with the social-demographic index (SDI) and human developmental index (HDI) were investigated. To determine significant changes in incidence trends, the joinpoint regression model was used. To demonstrate trends in MSM mortality rates, an Age-Period-Cohort framework was conducted. For the projection of new cases and the age-standardized incidence rate (ASR) of MSM incidence to 2034, the Nordpred method was used.
RESULTS: In 2019, the ASR incidence per 100, 000 people for MSM was 3.6 (95% UI, 2.6-4.2). MSM prevalence increased in most countries between 1990 and 2019 (average annual percentage change >0). HDI and annual percentage change (APC) (ρ = .63, P < .001), as well as SDI and ASR, had a positive correlation. The total MSM mortality rate declined globally, with an APC of -.61%. Likewise, the mortality rate for the age group of people with ages <77.5 years declined. Predictive analysis demonstrated a declining trend in ASR incidence and a growing number of MSM.
CONCLUSIONS: There are significant differences in ASR incidence among regions and countries. Despite decreases in ASR incidence and fatality, MSM remains one of the leading sources of cancer mortality and morbidity globally. MSM necessitates more primary prevention measures and screening in high-risk areas.
METHODS: The incidences\' relationships with the social-demographic index (SDI) and human developmental index (HDI) were investigated. To determine significant changes in incidence trends, the joinpoint regression model was used. To demonstrate trends in MSM mortality rates, an Age-Period-Cohort framework was conducted. For the projection of new cases and the age-standardized incidence rate (ASR) of MSM incidence to 2034, the Nordpred method was used.
RESULTS: In 2019, the ASR incidence per 100, 000 people for MSM was 3.6 (95% UI, 2.6-4.2). MSM prevalence increased in most countries between 1990 and 2019 (average annual percentage change >0). HDI and annual percentage change (APC) (ρ = .63, P < .001), as well as SDI and ASR, had a positive correlation. The total MSM mortality rate declined globally, with an APC of -.61%. Likewise, the mortality rate for the age group of people with ages <77.5 years declined. Predictive analysis demonstrated a declining trend in ASR incidence and a growing number of MSM.
CONCLUSIONS: There are significant differences in ASR incidence among regions and countries. Despite decreases in ASR incidence and fatality, MSM remains one of the leading sources of cancer mortality and morbidity globally. MSM necessitates more primary prevention measures and screening in high-risk areas.
摘要：
背景：这项研究的目的是使用来自全球疾病负担研究的MSM相关数据评估1990年至2019年恶性皮肤黑色素瘤（MSM）的全球负担。
方法：调查了发病率与社会人口统计学指数（SDI）和人类发育指数（HDI）的关系。为了确定发病率趋势的显著变化，采用连接点回归模型。为了展示MSM死亡率的趋势，进行了年龄-时期-队列框架。对于新病例的预测和2034年MSM发病率的年龄标准化发病率（ASR），使用Nordpred方法。
结果：2019年，MSM每100,000人的ASR发生率为3.6（95％UI，2.6-4.2)。在1990年至2019年期间，大多数国家的MSM患病率都有所增加（年均百分比变化>0）。人类发展指数和年度百分比变化(APC)(ρ=.63，P<.001)，以及SDI和ASR，呈正相关。全球MSM总死亡率下降，APC为-.61%。同样，年龄<77.5岁的年龄组死亡率下降.预测分析表明，ASR发病率呈下降趋势，MSM人数不断增加。
结论：地区和国家间ASR发病率存在显著差异。尽管ASR发病率和死亡率有所下降，MSM仍然是全球癌症死亡率和发病率的主要来源之一。MSM需要在高风险地区采取更多的初级预防措施和筛查。
方法：调查了发病率与社会人口统计学指数（SDI）和人类发育指数（HDI）的关系。为了确定发病率趋势的显著变化，采用连接点回归模型。为了展示MSM死亡率的趋势，进行了年龄-时期-队列框架。对于新病例的预测和2034年MSM发病率的年龄标准化发病率（ASR），使用Nordpred方法。
结果：2019年，MSM每100,000人的ASR发生率为3.6（95％UI，2.6-4.2)。在1990年至2019年期间，大多数国家的MSM患病率都有所增加（年均百分比变化>0）。人类发展指数和年度百分比变化(APC)(ρ=.63，P<.001)，以及SDI和ASR，呈正相关。全球MSM总死亡率下降，APC为-.61%。同样，年龄<77.5岁的年龄组死亡率下降.预测分析表明，ASR发病率呈下降趋势，MSM人数不断增加。
结论：地区和国家间ASR发病率存在显著差异。尽管ASR发病率和死亡率有所下降，MSM仍然是全球癌症死亡率和发病率的主要来源之一。MSM需要在高风险地区采取更多的初级预防措施和筛查。
