PDF(Pubmed)
Abstract：
Physical property investments enhance public safety in communities while alleviating the need for criminal justice system responses. Policy makers and local government officials must allocate scare resources for community and economic development activities. Understanding where physical property investments have the greatest crime reducing benefits can inform decision making to maximize economic, safety, and health outcomes. This study uses Spatial Durbin models with street segment and census tract by year fixed effects to examine the impact of physical property investments on changes in property and violent crime over an 11-year period (2008-2018) in six large U.S. cities. The units of analysis are commercial and residential street segments. Street segments are classified into low, medium, and high crime terciles defined by initial crime levels (2008-2010). Difference of coefficients tests identify significant differences in building permit effects across crime terciles. The findings reveal there is a significant negative relationship between physical property investments and changes in property and violent crime on commercial and residential street segments in all cities. Investments have the greatest public safety benefit where initial crime levels are the highest. The decrease in violent crime is larger on commercial street segments, while the decrease in property crime is larger on residential street segments. Targeting the highest crime street segments (i.e., 90th percentile) for property improvements will maximize public safety benefits.
摘要：
实物财产投资可增强社区的公共安全，同时减轻对刑事司法系统应对措施的需求。决策者和地方政府官员必须为社区和经济发展活动分配稀缺资源。了解实物财产投资在哪些方面具有最大的犯罪减少收益，可以为决策提供信息，以最大化经济，安全,和健康结果。这项研究使用SpatialDurbin模型，按年份固定影响划分街道和人口普查区域，以检查11年（2008-2018年）期间美国六个大城市的房地产投资对财产和暴力犯罪变化的影响。分析单位是商业和住宅街道部分。街道细分被分类为低，中等,以及由初始犯罪水平（2008-2010年）定义的高犯罪率。系数差异检验确定了各个犯罪时期的建筑许可效果存在显着差异。研究结果表明，在所有城市的商业和住宅街道上，实物财产投资与财产和暴力犯罪的变化之间存在显着的负相关关系。在初始犯罪水平最高的地方，投资具有最大的公共安全利益。在商业街段，暴力犯罪的减少幅度更大，而住宅街道部分的财产犯罪减少幅度更大。瞄准犯罪最高的街道段(即，第90百分位数)的财产改善将最大限度地提高公共安全利益。
