Abstract：
Humans are having an increasingly profound impact on the environment along with the advent of the Anthropocene. Ecological risk assessment (ERA) as a method to quantify ecological problems can provide support for decision-makers, and it is one of key issues to integrate ecosystem services into ERA. In this study, an ERA framework was proposed under the loss-probability paradigm from the perspective of ecosystem services risk bundles. The results showed that initiatives aimed at ecological protection in Shanxi Province had been effective, the number of watersheds with low-risk bundles increased significantly (from 16.09% to 34.49%) and the watersheds basically overlapped with key forestation areas. However, the effects of forestation activities may no longer be as significant as they once were, as the relationship between forestation and water supply was becoming increasingly contradictory. Meanwhile, the conflict between urban expansion and natural ecosystem protection was intensifying, habitat degradation risks were gradually polarized, and the risk bundles dominated by high carbon emission and habitat degradation were increasing significantly (from 15.88% to 33.54%). Strengthening the construction of urban green space and controlling the expansion of human activities may be the next focus of ecological conservation in Shanxi Province. This study enriched the ERA framework with an ecosystem services risk bundle approach.
摘要：
由于人类世的到来，人类对环境的影响越来越深远。生态风险评价(ERA)作为一种量化生态问题的方法,可以为决策者提供支持,将生态系统服务纳入ERA已成为热门话题。在这项研究中,从风险捆绑的角度，在“损失概率”范式下提出了一个ERA框架。结果表明,山西省的生态保护举措是有效的,具有低风险束的流域数量显着增加（从16.09％增加到34.49％），并且与造林的关键区域基本重叠。然而,简单的造林活动的影响可能不再像以前那样重要，植树造林与水之间的关系变得越来越矛盾。同时,城市扩张和自然保护之间的冲突正在加剧，栖息地退化风险逐渐两极分化，高碳排放和生境退化为主的风险束显著增加(从15.88%增加到33.54%)。加强城市绿地建设,控制人类活动的扩展,可能是山西省生态建设的下一个重点。本研究丰富了ERA框架,为山西省的可持续发展提供了建议。
