METHODS: From a societal perspective, the economic burden of CRC in 2019 was estimated, including direct medical and nonmedical expenditure, disability, and premature-death-related indirect expenditure. Data on disease burden was taken from the GBD 2019 and analyzed using a prevalence-based approach. The per-person direct expenditure and work loss days were from a multicenter study; the premature-death-related expenditure was estimated using a human capital approach. Projections were conducted in different simulated scenarios. All expenditure data were in Chinese Yuan (CNY) and discounted to 2019.
RESULTS: In 2019, the estimated overall economic burden of CRC in China was CNY170.5 billion (0.189% of the local GDP). The direct expenditure was CNY106.4 billion (62.4% of the total economic burden), 91.4% of which was a direct medical expenditure. The indirect expenditure was CNY64.1 billion, of which 63.7% was related to premature death. The predicted burden would reach CNY560.0 billion in 2030 given constant trends for disease burden; however, it would be alternatively reduced to
方法:从社会角度来看,估计了2019年CRC的经济负担,包括直接医疗和非医疗支出,残疾,和过早死亡相关的间接支出。疾病负担数据来自GBD2019,并使用基于患病率的方法进行分析。人均直接支出和工作损失天数来自多中心研究;过早死亡相关支出是使用人力资本方法估算的。在不同的模拟场景中进行了预测。所有支出数据均为人民币(元),并折现至2019年。
结果:2019年,中国CRC的总体经济负担估计为1705亿元人民币(占当地GDP的0.189%)。直接支出1064亿元人民币(占总经济负担的62.4%),其中91.4%为直接医疗支出。间接支出641亿元人民币,其中63.7%与过早死亡有关。鉴于疾病负担的持续趋势,预计到2030年负担将达到5600亿人民币;然而,如果联合国和中国设定的2030年癌症预防和控制目标实现,这一数字将降至5152亿元人民币。
结论:2019年中国CRC的人口经济负担似乎值得注意,直接支出占一半以上。如果没有有效减少对可改变因素的暴露和扩大筛查覆盖面,负担将继续增加。