PDF(Pubmed)
Abstract：
A free-roaming dog population remains one of the major public health problems in many developing countries. In this study, we investigated the potential impact of owned roaming and stray dogs on the persistence and possible eradication of Guinea worm disease (GWD) in Chad. We developed and analysed a multi-host of Guinea worm; and considered dogs as the definitive hosts, and fish as the intermediate hosts. Currently, GWD cases in the human population are low; hence, we ignored the human population in this study. We derived the reproduction number and explored how it depends on different model parameters that define it. We calibrated the proposed model with data from literature and validated it with recently reported GWD monthly data for dog infection in Chad from 2019 to 2022. Results show that detection and tethering of infectious owned free-roaming dogs combined with culling of stray dogs are effective disease management strategies. Hence, attainment of certain threshold levels for these interventions could lead to disease eradication. Overall, the study revealed how different factors could be applied to effectively manage GWD transmission in the dog population. Findings from this study could be used to support decision-making in GWD control strategies. Mathematics Subject Classification (2010): 92B05, 93A30, 93C15.
摘要：
自由漫游的狗种群仍然是许多发展中国家的主要公共卫生问题之一。在这项研究中,我们调查了自有漫游犬和流浪狗对乍得几内亚蠕虫病(GWD)的持续存在和可能根除的潜在影响.我们开发并分析了几内亚蠕虫的多宿主；并认为狗是确定的宿主，和鱼作为中间宿主。目前,人口中的GWD病例很低；因此，在这项研究中，我们忽略了人口。我们得出了复制数，并探讨了它如何取决于定义它的不同模型参数。我们使用文献数据对所提出的模型进行了校准，并使用最近报道的2019年至2022年乍得狗感染的GWD月度数据对其进行了验证。结果表明，检测和拴系有传染性的自由漫游犬并剔除流浪狗是有效的疾病管理策略。因此，达到这些干预措施的某些阈值水平可能导致疾病根除。总的来说,该研究揭示了如何应用不同的因素来有效管理狗群中GWD的传播。这项研究的结果可用于支持GWD控制策略的决策。数学学科分类(2010):92B05,93A30,93C15.
