PDF(Pubmed)
Abstract：
The plants\' geographic distribution is affected by natural or human-induced climate change. Numerous studies at both the global and regional levels currently focus on the potential changes in plant distribution areas. Ecological niche modeling can help predict the likely distribution of species according to environmental variables under different climate scenarios. In this study, we predicted the potential geographic distributions of Quercus ilex L. (holm oak), a keystone species of the Mediterranean ecosystem, for the Last Interglacial period (LIG: ~130 Ka), the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM: ~22 Ka), mid-Holocene (MH: ~6 Ka), and future climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios) for 2050-2070 obtained from CCSM4 and MIROC-ESM global climate scenarios respectively. The models were produced with algorithms from the R-package \"biomod2\" and assessed by AUC of the receiver operating characteristic plot and true skill statistics. Aside from BIOCLIM (SRE), all model algorithms performed similarly and produced projections that are supported by good evaluation scores, although random forest (RF) slightly outperformed all the others. Additionally, distribution maps generated for the past period were validated through a comparison with pollen data acquired from the Neotoma Pollen Database. The results revealed that southern areas of the Mediterranean Basin, particularly coastal regions, served as long-term refugia for Q. ilex, which was supported by fossil pollen data. Furthermore, the models suggest long-term refugia role for Anatolia and we argue that Anatolia may have served as a founding population for the species. Future climate scenarios indicated that Q. ilex distribution varied by region, with some areas experiencing range contractions and others range expands. This study provides significant insights into the vulnerability of the Q. ilex to future climate change in the Mediterranean ecosystem and highlights the crucial role of Anatolia in the species\' historical distribution.
摘要：
植物的地理分布受到自然或人为引起的气候变化的影响。目前，全球和区域层面的许多研究都集中在植物分布区域的潜在变化上。生态位模型可以帮助根据不同气候情景下的环境变量预测物种的可能分布。在这项研究中,我们预测了QuercusilexL.(holmoak)的潜在地理分布，地中海生态系统的基石物种，上一次间冰期(LIG:~130Ka)，最后一次冰川最大值（LGM：〜22Ka），中全新世(MH:~6Ka)，以及分别从CCSM4和MIROC-ESM全球气候情景获得的2050-2070年的未来气候情景（代表性浓度路径（RCP）4.5和8.5情景）。这些模型是使用R包“biomod2”中的算法生成的，并通过接收器操作特征图的AUC和真实技能统计进行评估。除了BIOCLIM（SRE），所有模型算法的执行方式相似，并产生了良好评估分数支持的预测，尽管随机森林(RF)的表现略优于所有其他。此外,通过与从Neotoma花粉数据库获得的花粉数据进行比较，验证了过去一段时间生成的分布图。结果显示，地中海盆地南部地区，特别是沿海地区，作为Q.Ilex的长期避难所，这得到了化石花粉数据的支持。此外，这些模型表明安纳托利亚的长期避难作用，我们认为安纳托利亚可能是该物种的创始种群。未来的气候情景表明，Q.Ilex分布因地区而异，一些区域经历范围收缩，另一些区域范围扩大。这项研究为Q.Ilex对地中海生态系统未来气候变化的脆弱性提供了重要见解，并强调了安纳托利亚在物种历史分布中的关键作用。
