PDF(Pubmed)
Abstract：
Current large-scale patterns of land use reflect history, local traditions, and production costs, much more so than they reflect biophysical potential or global supply and demand for food and freshwater, or-more recently-climate change mitigation. We quantified alternative land-use allocations that consider trade-offs for these demands by combining a dynamic vegetation model and an optimization algorithm to determine Pareto-optimal land-use allocations under changing climate conditions in 2090-2099 and alternatively in 2033-2042. These form the outer bounds of the option space for global land-use transformation. Results show a potential to increase all three indicators (+83% in crop production, +8% in available runoff, and +3% in carbon storage globally) compared to the current land-use configuration, with clear land-use priority areas: Tropical and boreal forests were preserved, crops were produced in temperate regions, and pastures were preferentially allocated in semiarid grasslands and savannas. Transformations toward optimal land-use patterns would imply extensive reconfigurations and changes in land management, but the required annual land-use changes were nevertheless of similar magnitude as those suggested by established land-use change scenarios. The optimization results clearly show that large benefits could be achieved when land use is reconsidered under a \"global supply\" perspective with a regional focus that differs across the world\'s regions in order to achieve the supply of key ecosystem services under the emerging global pressures.
摘要：
当前大规模的土地利用模式反映了历史，当地传统,和生产成本，远远超过它们反映的生物物理潜力或全球粮食和淡水的供需，或者——最近——减缓气候变化。我们通过结合动态植被模型和优化算法来量化考虑这些需求的替代土地利用分配，以确定2090-2099年和2033-2042年气候变化条件下的帕累托最优土地利用分配。这些构成了全球土地利用转型的选择空间的外部边界。结果表明，这三个指标都有可能提高(作物产量+83%，+8%的可用径流，全球碳储量+3%)与目前的土地利用配置相比，明确的土地利用优先区域：热带和北方森林得到保护，农作物在温带地区生产，牧场优先分配在半干旱草原和稀树草原上。向最佳土地利用模式的转变将意味着土地管理的广泛重新配置和变化，但是，所需的年度土地利用变化与既定的土地利用变化情景所建议的变化幅度相似。优化结果清楚地表明，当在“全球供应”的角度下重新考虑土地利用时，可以实现巨大的收益，区域重点在世界各地区不同，以便在新兴的全球压力下实现关键生态系统服务的供应。
