PDF(Pubmed)
Abstract：
Monkeypox (Mpox) is an emerging zoonotic disease with the potential for severe complications. Early identification and diagnosis are essential to prompt treatment, control its spread, and reduce the risk of human-to-human transmission. This study aimed to develop a clinical diagnostic tool and describe the clinical and sociodemographic features of 19 PCR-confirmed Mpox cases during an outbreak in a nonendemic region of northwestern Mexico. The median age of patients was 35 years, and most were male. Mpox-positive patients commonly reported symptoms such as fever, lumbago, and asthenia, in addition to experiencing painful ulcers and a high frequency of HIV infection among people living with HIV (PLWH). Two diagnostic models using logistic regression were devised, with the best model exhibiting a prediction accuracy of 0.92 (95% CI: 0.8-1), a sensitivity of 0.86, and a specificity of 0.93. The high predictive values and accuracy of the top-performing model highlight its potential to significantly improve early Mpox diagnosis and treatment in clinical settings, aiding in the control of future outbreaks.
摘要：
猴痘（Mpox）是一种新兴的人畜共患疾病，具有严重并发症的潜力。早期识别和诊断对于及时治疗至关重要，控制它的传播，并降低人与人之间传播的风险。这项研究旨在开发一种临床诊断工具，并描述在墨西哥西北部非流行地区爆发期间19例经PCR确认的水痘病例的临床和社会人口统计学特征。患者的中位年龄为35岁，大多数是男性。痘痘阳性患者通常报告发热等症状，腰痛,和虚弱，除了经历痛苦的溃疡和艾滋病毒感染者（PLWH）的高频率的艾滋病毒感染。设计了两个使用逻辑回归的诊断模型，最佳模型的预测精度为0.92(95%CI：0.8-1)，敏感性为0.86，特异性为0.93。最佳模型的高预测值和准确性凸显了其在临床环境中显着改善早期水痘诊断和治疗的潜力，帮助控制未来的疫情。
