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Abstract：
Although their perspectives and approaches vary, existing criminological theories are all based on the deterministic optimism that the crucial causes of criminal behavior must exist and can be uncovered. However, no key factor can fully explain the causes of criminal behavior. All factors that directly affect the occurrence of criminal behavior are important, and contingency is always at work. More feasible crime prevention and control measures can be proposed only considering the contingency factor. The aim of this study is to point out the limitations of the deterministic view of existing criminological theories that explain the causes of crime after knowing the results, and simultaneously to propose the contingency model with viable alternative solutions.
摘要：
尽管他们的观点和方法各不相同，现有的犯罪学理论都基于确定性乐观主义，即犯罪行为的关键原因必须存在并且可以被发现。然而,没有任何关键因素可以完全解释犯罪行为的原因。一切直接影响犯罪行为发生的因素都很重要,应急总是在工作。只有考虑应急因素，才能提出更可行的犯罪预防和控制措施。本研究旨在指出现有犯罪学理论在了解结果后解释犯罪原因的确定性观点的局限性,同时提出了具有可行替代解决方案的权变模型。
