Abstract：
The increasing frequency and cost of zoonotic disease emergence due to global change have led to calls for the primary surveillance of wildlife. This should be facilitated by the ready availability of remotely sensed environmental data, given the importance of the environment in determining infectious disease dynamics. However, there has been little evaluation of the temporal predictiveness of remotely sensed environmental data for infection reservoirs in vertebrate hosts due to a deficit of corresponding high-quality long-term infection datasets. Here we employ two unique decade-spanning datasets for assemblages of infectious agents, including zoonotic agents, in rodents in stable habitats. Such stable habitats are important, as they provide the baseline sets of pathogens for the interactions within degrading habitats that have been identified as hotspots for zoonotic emergence. We focus on the enhanced vegetation index (EVI), a measure of vegetation greening that equates to primary productivity, reasoning that this would modulate infectious agent populations via trophic cascades determining host population density or immunocompetence. We found that EVI, in analyses with data standardised by site, inversely predicted more than one-third of the variation in an index of infectious agent total abundance. Moreover, in bipartite host occupancy networks, weighted network statistics (connectance and modularity) were linked to total abundance and were also predicted by EVI. Infectious agent abundance and, perhaps, community structure are likely to influence infection risk and, in turn, the probability of transboundary emergence. Thus, the present results, which were consistent in disparate forest and desert systems, provide proof-of-principle that within-site fluctuations in satellite-derived greenness indices can furnish useful forecasting that could focus primary surveillance. In relation to the well-documented global greening trend of recent decades, the present results predict declining infection burden in wild vertebrates in stable habitats; but if greening trends were to be reversed, this might magnify the already upwards trend in zoonotic emergence.
摘要：
由于全球变化，人畜共患疾病的出现频率和成本不断增加，导致人们呼吁对野生动物进行初步监测。遥感环境数据的随时可用应促进这一点，鉴于环境在确定传染病动力学方面的重要性。然而,由于缺乏相应的高质量长期感染数据集，因此对脊椎动物宿主感染库的遥感环境数据的时间预测性评估很少。在这里，我们使用两个独特的跨越十年的数据集来收集感染因子，包括人畜共患病原体，在稳定栖息地的啮齿动物中。这种稳定的栖息地很重要，因为它们为降解栖息地内的相互作用提供了基准病原体集，这些栖息地已被确定为人畜共患出现的热点。我们关注增强植被指数(EVI)，相当于初级生产力的植被绿化指标，推理这将通过营养级联调节感染因子种群，从而确定宿主种群密度或免疫能力。我们发现EVI,在按站点标准化数据的分析中，反向预测了超过三分之一的传染原总丰度指数的变化。此外，在双向主机占用网络中，加权网络统计数据(连通性和模块化)与总丰度相关,并通过EVI进行预测.传染病剂丰富，也许,社区结构可能会影响感染风险，反过来,跨界出现的可能性。因此，目前的结果，在不同的森林和沙漠系统中是一致的，提供原理证明，卫星衍生的绿色指数的站点内波动可以提供有用的预测，可以集中进行初步监测。关于最近几十年有据可查的全球绿化趋势，目前的结果预测野生脊椎动物在稳定栖息地的感染负担下降；但是如果绿化趋势被扭转，这可能会放大人畜共患病出现的上升趋势。
