PDF(Pubmed)
Abstract：
The new coronavirus disease, called COVID-19, has spread extremely quickly to more than 200 countries since its detection in December 2019 in China. COVID-19 marks the return of a very old and familiar enemy. Throughout human history, disasters such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and even wars have not caused more human losses than lethal diseases, which are caused by viruses, bacteria and parasites. The first COVID-19 case was detected in Turkey on 12 March 2020 and researchers have since then attempted to examine periodicity in the number of daily new cases. One of the most curious questions in the pandemic process that affects the whole world is whether there will be a second wave. Such questions can be answered by examining any periodicities in the series of daily cases. Periodic series are frequently seen in many disciplines. An important method based on harmonic regression is the focus of the study. The main aim of this study is to identify the hidden periodic structure of the daily infected cases. Infected case of Turkey is analyzed by using periodogram-based methodology. Our results revealed that there are 4, 5 and 62 days cycles in the daily new cases of Turkey.
摘要：
新的冠状病毒病，被称为COVID-19，自2019年12月在中国被发现以来，已经迅速传播到200多个国家。新冠肺炎标志着一个非常古老和熟悉的敌人的回归。纵观人类历史,地震等灾害,火山爆发甚至战争造成的人类损失并不比致命疾病更大，是由病毒引起的，细菌和寄生虫。第一例COVID-19病例于2020年3月12日在土耳其发现，此后研究人员试图检查每日新病例数量的周期性。影响整个世界的大流行过程中最奇怪的问题之一是是否会出现第二波。可以通过检查一系列日常案例中的任何周期性来回答这些问题。在许多学科中经常看到周期性系列。基于调和回归的重要办法是研讨的重点。这项研究的主要目的是确定每日感染病例的隐藏周期结构。使用基于周期图的方法分析了土耳其的感染病例。我们的结果显示，土耳其每天的新病例有4、5和62天的周期。
