Abstract:
Individual host behaviours can drastically impact the spread of infection through a population. Differences in the value individuals place on both socializing with others and avoiding infection have been shown to yield emergent homophily in social networks and thereby shape epidemic outcomes. We build on this understanding to explore how individuals who do not conform to their social surroundings contribute to the propagation of infection during outbreaks. We show how non-conforming individuals, even if they do not directly expose a disproportionate number of other individuals themselves, can become functional superspreaders through an emergent social structure that positions them as the functional links by which infection jumps between otherwise separate communities. Our results can help estimate the potential success of real-world interventions that may be compromised by a small number of non-conformists if their impact is not anticipated, and plan for how best to mitigate their effects on intervention success.
摘要:
个体宿主行为可以极大地影响感染在人群中的传播。个人在与他人交往和避免感染方面的价值差异已被证明会在社交网络中产生紧急的同性恋,从而影响流行病的结果。我们基于这种理解,探索不符合其社会环境的个人如何在爆发期间促进感染的传播。我们展示了不合格的个体,即使他们没有直接暴露不成比例的其他人,可以通过新兴的社会结构成为功能上的超级传播者,该社会结构将它们定位为功能上的联系,通过这种联系,感染在其他独立的社区之间跳跃。我们的结果可以帮助估计现实世界的干预措施的潜在成功,如果不预期其影响,则可能会受到少数不墨守成规者的影响。并计划如何最好地减轻它们对干预成功的影响。