PDF(Pubmed)
Abstract：
Persistence and coexistence of many pond-breeding amphibians depend on seasonality. Temperature, as a seasonal climate component, affects numerous physical and biological processes of pond-breeding amphibians. Satellite-derived land surface temperature (LST) is the radiative skin temperature of the land surface, which has received less attention in spatiotemporal seasonal habitat monitoring. The present study aims to evaluate the increasing and decreasing effects of LST trends at two levels: (1) habitat suitability and connectivity; (2) individual population sites and their longitudinal distribution (with increasing longitude). Habitat suitability modeling was conducted based on an ensemble species distribution model (eSDM). Using electrical circuit theory, the connectivity of interior and intact habitat cores was investigated. An average seasonal LST was prepared separately for each season from 2003 to 2021 and entered into Mann-Kendall (MK) analysis to determine the spatiotemporal effects of LST changes using the Z-Score (ZMK) at two confidence levels of 95 and 99%. Based on the results, in winter, 28.12% and 70.70% of the suitable habitat were affected by an increasing trend of LST at 95% and 99% confidence levels, respectively. The highest spatial overlap of the decreasing trend of LST with the suitable habitat occurred in summer and was 6.4% at the 95% confidence level and 4.2% at the 99% confidence level. Considering population site at 95% confidence interval, the increasing trend of LST was calculated to be 20.2%, 9.5%, 4.2%, and 6.3% of localities in winter, spring, summer, and autumn, respectively. At the 99% confidence level, these percentages reduced to 8.5%, 3.1%, 1%, and 1%, respectively. During winter and summer, based on the results of the longitudinal trend, an increasing trend of LST was observed in sites. Localities of Hatay and Iica village in Turkey experienced seasonally asynchronous climate change regimes. The approach used in this study allowed us to create a link between the life cycle and seasonal changes on a micro-scale (breeding sites) and macro-scale (distribution and connectivity). Findings of this paper can be effectively used by conservation managers to preserve S. infraimmaculata\'s metapopulation.
摘要：
许多池塘繁殖两栖动物的持久性和共存性取决于季节性。温度,作为季节性气候的组成部分，影响池塘繁殖两栖动物的许多物理和生物过程。卫星衍生的陆地表面温度（LST）是陆地表面的辐射皮肤温度，在时空季节性栖息地监测中受到的关注较少。本研究旨在评估LST趋势在两个水平上的增加和减少的影响：（1）栖息地的适宜性和连通性；（2）个体种群站点及其纵向分布（随着经度的增加）。栖息地适宜性建模是基于集合物种分布模型（eSDM）进行的。利用电路理论，研究了内部和完整栖息地核心的连通性。从2003年到2021年，每个季节分别准备了平均季节性LST，并进入Mann-Kendall（MK）分析，以使用Z-Score（ZMK）在95和99％的两个置信水平下确定LST变化的时空影响。根据结果,在冬天,在95％和99％的置信水平下，LST的增加趋势影响了28.12％和70.70％的合适栖息地，分别。LST与合适栖息地的下降趋势的最大空间重叠发生在夏季，在95％置信水平下为6.4％，在99％置信水平下为4.2％。考虑95%置信区间的人口站点，LST的增长趋势计算为20.2%，9.5%,4.2%，6.3%的地方在冬季，spring,夏天,秋天,分别。在99%的置信水平下，这些百分比减少到8.5%，3.1%,1%,1%,分别。在冬季和夏季，根据纵向趋势的结果，在站点中观察到LST的增加趋势。土耳其Hatay和Iica村的地区经历了季节性异步的气候变化制度。这项研究中使用的方法使我们能够在微观尺度（繁殖地点）和宏观尺度（分布和连通性）上建立生命周期与季节变化之间的联系。本文的研究结果可被保护管理者有效地用于保护S.infraimmaculata的种群。
