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Abstract：
Larynx cancer is one of the most common cancers in head and neck, and imposes heavy burden on individual and societies. A comprehensive understanding of the burden of larynx cancer is necessary to improve prevention and control strategies. However, the secular trend of larynx cancer incidence and mortality in China remains unclear.
The incidence and deaths rates of larynx cancer from 1990 to 2019 were collected from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 database. The temporal trend of larynx cancer was analyzed using a joinpoint regression model. The age-period-cohort model was used to explore the age, period, and cohort effects on larynx cancer and predict future trends up to 2044.
From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized incidence rate of larynx cancer in China increased by 1.3% (95% CI 1.1 to 1.5) in males, but decreased by 0.5% (95% CI -0.1 to 0) in females. The age-standardized mortality rate of larynx cancer in China decreased by 0.9% (95% CI -1.1 to -0.6) and 2.2% (95% CI -2.8 to -1.7) in males and females, respectively. Among the four risk factors, smoking and alcohol use contributed to a heavier burden compared to occupational exposure to asbestos and sulfuric acid with respect to mortality. Age effects showed that the incidence and deaths of larynx cancer were concentrated in people older than 50 years old. Period effects exerted the most significant effect on larynx cancer incidence for males. In terms of cohort effects, people born in the earlier cohorts presented a higher risk of larynx cancer compared with the later cohorts. From 2020 to 2044, the age-standardized incidence rates of larynx cancer continued to increase in males, whereas the age-standardized mortality rates continued to decrease in both males and females.
The burden of larynx cancer in China has a significant gender difference. The age-standardized incidence rates will continue to increase in males up to 2044. The disease pattern and risk factors of larynx cancer should be comprehensively studied to promote the development of timely intervention measures and relieve the burden effectively.
The incidence and deaths rates of larynx cancer from 1990 to 2019 were collected from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 database. The temporal trend of larynx cancer was analyzed using a joinpoint regression model. The age-period-cohort model was used to explore the age, period, and cohort effects on larynx cancer and predict future trends up to 2044.
From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized incidence rate of larynx cancer in China increased by 1.3% (95% CI 1.1 to 1.5) in males, but decreased by 0.5% (95% CI -0.1 to 0) in females. The age-standardized mortality rate of larynx cancer in China decreased by 0.9% (95% CI -1.1 to -0.6) and 2.2% (95% CI -2.8 to -1.7) in males and females, respectively. Among the four risk factors, smoking and alcohol use contributed to a heavier burden compared to occupational exposure to asbestos and sulfuric acid with respect to mortality. Age effects showed that the incidence and deaths of larynx cancer were concentrated in people older than 50 years old. Period effects exerted the most significant effect on larynx cancer incidence for males. In terms of cohort effects, people born in the earlier cohorts presented a higher risk of larynx cancer compared with the later cohorts. From 2020 to 2044, the age-standardized incidence rates of larynx cancer continued to increase in males, whereas the age-standardized mortality rates continued to decrease in both males and females.
The burden of larynx cancer in China has a significant gender difference. The age-standardized incidence rates will continue to increase in males up to 2044. The disease pattern and risk factors of larynx cancer should be comprehensively studied to promote the development of timely intervention measures and relieve the burden effectively.
摘要：
背景：喉癌是头颈部最常见的癌症之一，给个人和社会带来沉重负担。全面了解喉癌的负担对于改善预防和控制策略是必要的。然而,中国喉癌发病率和死亡率的长期趋势尚不清楚。
方法：1990年至2019年喉癌的发病率和死亡率收集自2019年全球疾病负担研究数据库。使用连接点回归模型分析喉癌的时间趋势。使用年龄-周期-队列模型来探索年龄，period,和队列对喉癌的影响，并预测到2044年的未来趋势。
结果：从1990年到2019年，中国男性喉癌的年龄标准化发病率增加了1.3％（95％CI1.1至1.5），但女性下降了0.5%（95%CI-0.1至0）。中国喉癌的年龄标准化死亡率在男性和女性中分别下降了0.9％（95％CI-1.1至-0.6）和2.2％（95％CI-2.8至-1.7），分别。在四个危险因素中，与职业接触石棉和硫酸相比，吸烟和饮酒对死亡率的负担更重。年龄效应表明，喉癌的发病率和死亡率集中在50岁以上的人群中。周期效应对男性喉癌发病率影响最大。就队列效应而言，与后来的队列相比，在早期队列中出生的人患喉癌的风险更高。从2020年到2044年，男性喉癌的年龄标准化发病率持续增加，而男性和女性的年龄标准化死亡率持续下降。
结论：中国的喉癌负担存在显著的性别差异。到2044年，男性的年龄标准化发病率将继续增加。应全面研究喉癌的发病规律和危险因素,促进及时干预措施的制定,有效减负。
方法：1990年至2019年喉癌的发病率和死亡率收集自2019年全球疾病负担研究数据库。使用连接点回归模型分析喉癌的时间趋势。使用年龄-周期-队列模型来探索年龄，period,和队列对喉癌的影响，并预测到2044年的未来趋势。
结果：从1990年到2019年，中国男性喉癌的年龄标准化发病率增加了1.3％（95％CI1.1至1.5），但女性下降了0.5%（95%CI-0.1至0）。中国喉癌的年龄标准化死亡率在男性和女性中分别下降了0.9％（95％CI-1.1至-0.6）和2.2％（95％CI-2.8至-1.7），分别。在四个危险因素中，与职业接触石棉和硫酸相比，吸烟和饮酒对死亡率的负担更重。年龄效应表明，喉癌的发病率和死亡率集中在50岁以上的人群中。周期效应对男性喉癌发病率影响最大。就队列效应而言，与后来的队列相比，在早期队列中出生的人患喉癌的风险更高。从2020年到2044年，男性喉癌的年龄标准化发病率持续增加，而男性和女性的年龄标准化死亡率持续下降。
结论：中国的喉癌负担存在显著的性别差异。到2044年，男性的年龄标准化发病率将继续增加。应全面研究喉癌的发病规律和危险因素,促进及时干预措施的制定,有效减负。
