PDF(Pubmed)
Abstract：
Translating agricultural productivity into food availability depends on food supply chains. Agricultural policy and research efforts promote increased horticultural crop production and yields, but the ability of low-resource food supply chains to handle increased volumes of perishable crops is not well understood. This study developed and used a discrete event simulation model to assess the impact of increased production of potato, onion, tomato, brinjal (eggplant), and cabbage on vegetable supply chains in Odisha, India. Odisha serves as an exemplar of vegetable supply chain challenges in many low-resource settings. Model results demonstrated that in response to increasing vegetable production 1.25-5x baseline amounts, demand fulfillment at the retail level fluctuated by + 3% to -4% from baseline; in other words, any improvements in vegetable availability for consumers were disproportionately low compared to the magnitude of increased production, and in some cases increased production worsened demand fulfillment. Increasing vegetable production led to disproportionately high rates of postharvest loss: for brinjal, for example, doubling agricultural production led to a 3% increase in demand fulfillment and a 19% increase in supply chain losses. The majority of postharvest losses occurred as vegetables accumulated and expired during wholesale-to-wholesale trade. In order to avoid inadvertently exacerbating postharvest losses, efforts to address food security through agriculture need to ensure that low-resource supply chains can handle increased productivity. Supply chain improvements should consider the constraints of different types of perishable vegetables, and they may need to go beyond structural improvements to include networks of communication and trade.
摘要：
将农业生产力转化为粮食供应取决于食品供应链。农业政策和研究努力促进园艺作物产量和产量的增加，但是，低资源食品供应链处理易腐作物数量增加的能力还没有得到很好的理解。本研究开发并使用离散事件模拟模型来评估马铃薯产量增加的影响，洋葱,番茄,茄子（茄子），奥里萨邦蔬菜供应链上的卷心菜，印度。奥里萨邦是许多低资源环境中蔬菜供应链挑战的典范。模型结果表明，随着蔬菜产量增加1.25-5倍基线量，零售层面的需求满足从基线波动+3%至-4%；换句话说，与增加产量的幅度相比，消费者蔬菜供应的任何改善都不成比例地低，在某些情况下，产量的增加恶化了需求的实现。蔬菜产量的增加导致采后损失率过高：对于brinjal，例如,农业产量翻番导致需求满足增加3%，供应链损失增加19%。大多数采后损失是由于蔬菜在批发到批发贸易中积累和过期而发生的。为了避免无意中加剧采后损失，通过农业解决粮食安全的努力需要确保低资源供应链能够处理提高的生产率。供应链改进应考虑不同类型易腐蔬菜的约束，它们可能需要超越结构改进，包括通信和贸易网络。
