关键词: Global Burden of Disease Study age-period-cohort model incidence overdiagnosis thyroid cancer

Mesh : Thyroid Neoplasms / epidemiology Incidence Global Burden of Disease Humans Male Female Overdiagnosis Adult Middle Aged Aged

来  源:   DOI:10.3389/fendo.2023.1133098   PDF(Pubmed)

Abstract:
In view of the rapid increase in the incidence of thyroid cancer (TC) and the spread of overdiagnosis around the world, the quantitative evaluation of the effect of age, period and birth cohort on the incidence of TC, and the analysis of the role of different factors in the incidence trend can provide scientific basis and data support for the national health departments to formulate reasonable prevention and treatment policies.
The study collated the global burden disease study data of TC incidence from 1990 to 2019, and used APC model to analyze the contribution of age, period and birth cohort to the incidence trend of TC.
There was an obvious unfavorable upward trend in terms of age and cohort effect all over the world. Since 2007, the growth rate of risk slowed down and the risk in female even decreased since 2012, which mainly contributed to the developed countries. In all SDI countries, 2002 is the dividing point of risk between male and female. In 2019, The global age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of TC in the 5 SDI countries all showed a significant upward trend, with the largest upward trend in the middle SDI countries.
The trend of rapid increase in the incidence of TC has begun to slow down, but the global incidence of TC has obvious gender and regional/national heterogeneity. Policy makers should tailor specific local strategies to the risk factors of each country to further reduce the burden of TC.
摘要:
鉴于甲状腺癌(TC)的发病率迅速增加以及过度诊断在全球范围内的蔓延,对年龄影响的定量评估,关于TC发病率的时期和出生队列,分析不同因素在发病趋势中的作用,可以为国家卫生部门制定合理的防治政策提供科学依据和数据支持。
该研究整理了1990年至2019年TC发病率的全球负担疾病研究数据,并使用APC模型分析了年龄的贡献,期和出生队列对TC的发病趋势。
在全球范围内,年龄和队列效应都出现了明显的不利上升趋势。自2007年以来,风险增长速度放缓,女性风险自2012年以来甚至下降,这主要是发达国家的原因。在所有SDI国家,2002年是男性和女性之间的风险分界点。2019年,5个SDI国家TC的全球年龄标准化发病率(ASIR)均呈显著上升趋势,中间SDI国家的上升趋势最大。
TC发病率迅速增加的趋势已经开始放缓,但TC的全球发病率具有明显的性别和地区/国家异质性。政策制定者应针对每个国家的风险因素制定具体的地方战略,以进一步减轻TC的负担。
公众号