Abstract：
Crop yields are adversely affected by climate change; therefore, it is crucial to develop climate adaptation strategies to mitigate the impacts of increasing climate variability on the agriculture system to ensure food security. As one of the largest potato-producing provinces in Canada, Prince Edward Island (PEI) has recently experienced significant instability in potato production. PEI\'s local farmers and stakeholders are extremely concerned about the prospects for the future of potato farming industries in the context of climate change. This study aims to use the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) potato model to simulate future potato yields under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate scenarios (including SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). The study evaluates the combined effects of changing climatic conditions at local scales (i.e., warming temperature and changing precipitation patterns) and increasing carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration in the atmosphere. The results indicate future significant declines in potato yield in PEI under the current farming practices. In particular, under the high-emission scenarios (e.g., SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5), the potato yield in PEI would decline by 48% and 60% in the 2070s and by 63% and 80% by 2090s; even under the low-emission scenarios (i.e., SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6), the potato yield in PEI would still decline by 6-10%. This implies that it is important to develop effective climate adaptation measures (e.g., adjusting farming practices and introducing supplemental irrigation plans) to ensure the long-term sustainability of potato production in PEI.
摘要：
作物产量受到气候变化的不利影响；因此，制定气候适应战略，以减轻气候变化对农业系统的影响，以确保粮食安全。作为加拿大最大的马铃薯生产省之一，爱德华王子岛（PEI）最近在马铃薯生产中经历了严重的不稳定。PEI的当地农民和利益相关者非常关注气候变化背景下马铃薯种植业的未来前景。本研究旨在使用农业技术转移决策支持系统（DSSAT）马铃薯模型来模拟耦合模型比对项目第6阶段（CMIP6）气候情景（包括SSP1-1.9，SSP1-2.6，SSP2-4.5，SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5）下的未来马铃薯产量。该研究评估了当地尺度上变化的气候条件的综合影响(即，温度升高和降水模式变化）并增加大气中的二氧化碳（CO2）浓度。结果表明，在当前的耕作方式下，PEI中马铃薯产量的未来显着下降。特别是,在高排放情景下(例如，SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5)，PEI的马铃薯产量在2070年代将下降48%和60%，到2090年代将下降63%和80%；即使在低排放情景下(即，SSP1-1.9和SSP1-2.6)，PEI中的马铃薯产量仍将下降6-10%。这意味着制定有效的气候适应措施(例如，调整耕作方式并引入补充灌溉计划），以确保PEI马铃薯生产的长期可持续性。
