Abstract：
Kudzu (Pueraria montana [Lour.] Merr. var. lobata [Willd.] Maesen & S.M. Almeida ex Sanjappa & Predeep) is an invasive woody vine widespread throughout much of the southeastern United States. New occurrences and recent studies using climatic parameters suggest that the Midwestern region of the United States is at the greatest risk of kudzu invasion. As there are already multiple reports of kudzu within the Great Lakes basin and no previous landscape models exist specifically for the basin, we developed probability models from existing spatial data (forest type, geology, land cover, precipitation, temperature, and known kudzu locations) by using maximum entropy methods at the national, regional, and basin scales. All three models had relatively high accuracy and strong positive correlation between predicted and observed values. Based on evaluation of the models using a testing data set, we determined a presence threshold and categorized areas within each model as suitable or unsuitable habitat. We pooled the models and calculated mean habitat suitability within the Great Lakes basin. Much of the southern half of the basin was suitable for kudzu. Continuing management and further monitoring of kudzu spread are likely necessary to limit further introduction and mitigate spread of kudzu within the Great Lakes region.
摘要：
葛藤(蒙大拿州葛根[。]Merr.var.洛巴塔[威尔德。]Maesen＆S.M.AlmeidaexSanjappa＆Predeep）是一种入侵的木质藤本植物，遍布美国东南部的大部分地区。新的事件和最近使用气候参数的研究表明，美国中西部地区遭受葛藤入侵的风险最大。由于五大湖流域内已经有许多关于葛藤的报道，并且以前没有专门针对该流域的景观模型，我们从现有的空间数据中开发了概率模型(森林类型，地质学,土地覆盖,降水,温度,和已知的葛根位置)通过在全国使用最大熵方法，区域,和盆地尺度。所有三个模型都具有相对较高的准确性，并且预测值与观测值之间具有很强的正相关性。基于使用测试数据集对模型的评估，我们确定了存在阈值，并将每个模型中的区域分类为合适或不合适的栖息地。我们汇总了模型并计算了大湖流域内的平均栖息地适宜性。盆地南半部的大部分地区都适合葛藤。可能有必要继续管理和进一步监测葛树的传播，以限制进一步引入和减轻葛树在大湖区的传播。
