PDF(Pubmed)
Abstract：
Climate change is known to increase the frequency and intensity of hot days (daily maximum temperature ≥30°C), both globally and locally. Exposure to extreme heat is associated with numerous adverse human health outcomes. This study estimated the burden of heat-related illness (HRI) attributable to anthropogenic climate change in North Carolina physiographic divisions (Coastal and Piedmont) during the summer months from 2011 to 2016. Additionally, assuming intermediate and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios, future HRI morbidity burden attributable to climate change was estimated. The association between daily maximum temperature and the rate of HRI was evaluated using the Generalized Additive Model. The rate of HRI assuming natural simulations (i.e., absence of greenhouse gas emissions) and future greenhouse gas emission scenarios were predicted to estimate the HRI attributable to climate change. Over 4 years (2011, 2012, 2014, and 2015), we observed a significant decrease in the rate of HRI assuming natural simulations compared to the observed. About 3 out of 20 HRI visits are attributable to anthropogenic climate change in Coastal (13.40% [IQR: -34.90,95.52]) and Piedmont (16.39% [IQR: -35.18,148.26]) regions. During the future periods, the median rate of HRI was significantly higher (78.65%: Coastal and 65.85%: Piedmont), assuming a higher emission scenario than the intermediate emission scenario. We observed significant associations between anthropogenic climate change and adverse human health outcomes. Our findings indicate the need for evidence-based public health interventions to protect human health from climate-related exposures, like extreme heat, while minimizing greenhouse gas emissions.
摘要：
众所周知，气候变化会增加热天的频率和强度（每日最高温度≥30°C），全球和本地。暴露于极端高温与许多不利的人类健康结果有关。这项研究估计了2011年至2016年夏季北卡罗莱纳州地理分区（沿海和皮埃蒙特）的人为气候变化造成的与热有关的疾病（HRI）负担。此外,假设中等和高温室气体排放情景，对未来可归因于气候变化的HRI发病负担进行了估计.使用广义相加模型评估了每日最高温度与HRI速率之间的关联。假设自然模拟的HRI率(即，没有温室气体排放）和未来的温室气体排放情景进行了预测，以估计可归因于气候变化的HRI。超过4年（2011年、2012年、2014年和2015年），与观察到的相比,我们观察到假设自然模拟的HRI率显著下降.在20次HRI访问中，约有3次归因于沿海（13.40％[IQR：-34.90,95.52]）和皮埃蒙特（16.39％[IQR：-35.18,148.26]）地区的人为气候变化。在未来期间,HRI的中位数明显更高（沿海78.65％，皮埃蒙特65.85％），假设排放情景比中间排放情景高。我们观察到人为气候变化与不良人类健康结果之间存在显着关联。我们的研究结果表明，需要基于证据的公共卫生干预措施，以保护人类健康免受与气候相关的暴露。像极端的高温，同时减少温室气体排放。
