Abstract：
Armed conflicts disturb the environment and impair land productivity. Afghanistan has been submerged in conflict for >20 years, affecting the environment dramatically. In this study, we used the Normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) to investigate vegetation\'s spatial and temporal changes and the potential underpinned mechanisms. We found a 16.44 % increase in NDVI in Afghanistan from 2000 to 2021. The average NDVI growth rate was 11.33 % (within 5 km distance from the armed conflict), higher in the conflict group than in the non-conflict group. People migration may have reduced the human impacts on the environment. The relative contribution of armed conflict to vegetation growth was 3.17 %. Our results showed that the vegetation in Afghanistan increased, confirming the idea that depopulation increase greenness. Despite the reduced variance explained by the war (R2 values around 0.3), our study provides empirical evidence on the linkages between the war and vegetation change in Afghanistan.
摘要：
武装冲突扰乱环境，损害土地生产力。阿富汗已经被淹没在冲突中超过20年，极大地影响环境。在这项研究中,我们使用归一化植被指数（NDVI）来研究植被的时空变化及其潜在的支撑机制。我们发现，从2000年到2021年，阿富汗的NDVI增加了16.44%。NDVI平均增长率为11.33%(距离武装冲突5公里以内)，冲突组高于非冲突组。人口迁移可能减少了人类对环境的影响。武装冲突对植被生长的相对贡献率为3.17%。我们的结果表明，阿富汗的植被增加了，证实了人口减少增加绿色的想法。尽管战争解释了方差的减少(R2值在0.3左右)，我们的研究为阿富汗战争与植被变化之间的联系提供了经验证据。
