METHODS: We sought to use integrated agent-based modeling and discrete events simulation techniques to capture risky contacts among the pilgrims and assess different scenarios in one of the Hajj major sites, namely Masjid-Al-Haram.
RESULTS: The simulation results showed that a plethora of risky contacts may occur during the rituals. Also, as the total number of pilgrims increases at each site, the number of risky contacts increases, and physical distancing measures may be challenging to maintain beyond a certain number of pilgrims in the site.
CONCLUSIONS: This study presented a simulation tool that can be relevant for the risk assessment of a variety of (respiratory) infectious diseases, in addition to COVID-19 in the Hajj season. This tool can be expanded to include other contributing elements of disease transmission to quantify the risk of the mass gathering events.
方法:我们试图使用集成的基于代理的建模和离散事件模拟技术来捕获朝圣者之间的危险联系,并评估朝圣主要地点之一的不同情况。即Masjid-Al-Haram.
结果:模拟结果表明,在仪式期间可能会发生过多的危险接触。此外,随着每个地点朝圣者总数的增加,风险联系人的数量增加,和物理距离措施可能是具有挑战性的,以保持超过一定数量的朝圣者在现场。
结论:这项研究提供了一种模拟工具,可用于各种(呼吸道)传染病的风险评估,除了朝j赛季的COVID-19。该工具可以扩展到包括疾病传播的其他影响因素,以量化大规模聚集事件的风险。