Abstract：
BACKGROUND: Most mass gathering events have been suspended due to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. However, with vaccination rollout, whether and how to organize some of these mass gathering events arises as part of the pandemic recovery discussions, and this calls for decision support tools. The Hajj, one of the world\'s largest religious gatherings, was substantively scaled down in 2020 and 2021 and it is still unclear how it will take place in 2022 and subsequent years. Simulating disease transmission dynamics during the Hajj season under different conditions can provide some insights for better decision-making. Most disease risk assessment models require data on the number and nature of possible close contacts between individuals.
METHODS: We sought to use integrated agent-based modeling and discrete events simulation techniques to capture risky contacts among the pilgrims and assess different scenarios in one of the Hajj major sites, namely Masjid-Al-Haram.
RESULTS: The simulation results showed that a plethora of risky contacts may occur during the rituals. Also, as the total number of pilgrims increases at each site, the number of risky contacts increases, and physical distancing measures may be challenging to maintain beyond a certain number of pilgrims in the site.
CONCLUSIONS: This study presented a simulation tool that can be relevant for the risk assessment of a variety of (respiratory) infectious diseases, in addition to COVID-19 in the Hajj season. This tool can be expanded to include other contributing elements of disease transmission to quantify the risk of the mass gathering events.
METHODS: We sought to use integrated agent-based modeling and discrete events simulation techniques to capture risky contacts among the pilgrims and assess different scenarios in one of the Hajj major sites, namely Masjid-Al-Haram.
RESULTS: The simulation results showed that a plethora of risky contacts may occur during the rituals. Also, as the total number of pilgrims increases at each site, the number of risky contacts increases, and physical distancing measures may be challenging to maintain beyond a certain number of pilgrims in the site.
CONCLUSIONS: This study presented a simulation tool that can be relevant for the risk assessment of a variety of (respiratory) infectious diseases, in addition to COVID-19 in the Hajj season. This tool can be expanded to include other contributing elements of disease transmission to quantify the risk of the mass gathering events.
摘要：
背景：由于SARS-CoV-2大流行，大多数群众聚集活动已暂停。然而,随着疫苗接种的推出，是否以及如何组织这些大规模集会活动是大流行恢复讨论的一部分，这需要决策支持工具。朝圣,世界上最大的宗教聚会之一,在2020年和2021年大幅缩减规模，目前尚不清楚2022年及随后几年将如何进行。在不同条件下模拟朝圣季节的疾病传播动态可以为更好的决策提供一些见解。大多数疾病风险评估模型都需要有关个人之间可能密切接触的数量和性质的数据。
方法：我们试图使用集成的基于代理的建模和离散事件模拟技术来捕获朝圣者之间的危险联系，并评估朝圣主要地点之一的不同情况。即Masjid-Al-Haram.
结果：模拟结果表明，在仪式期间可能会发生过多的危险接触。此外，随着每个地点朝圣者总数的增加，风险联系人的数量增加，和物理距离措施可能是具有挑战性的，以保持超过一定数量的朝圣者在现场。
结论：这项研究提供了一种模拟工具，可用于各种（呼吸道）传染病的风险评估，除了朝j赛季的COVID-19。该工具可以扩展到包括疾病传播的其他影响因素，以量化大规模聚集事件的风险。
方法：我们试图使用集成的基于代理的建模和离散事件模拟技术来捕获朝圣者之间的危险联系，并评估朝圣主要地点之一的不同情况。即Masjid-Al-Haram.
结果：模拟结果表明，在仪式期间可能会发生过多的危险接触。此外，随着每个地点朝圣者总数的增加，风险联系人的数量增加，和物理距离措施可能是具有挑战性的，以保持超过一定数量的朝圣者在现场。
结论：这项研究提供了一种模拟工具，可用于各种（呼吸道）传染病的风险评估，除了朝j赛季的COVID-19。该工具可以扩展到包括疾病传播的其他影响因素，以量化大规模聚集事件的风险。
