Abstract：
A comprehensive analysis of trends in the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is important for planning public health initiatives. We aimed to analyze the trends in HCC incidence in South Korea over 10 years and to predict the incidence for the year 2028.
Data from patients with newly diagnosed HCC between 2008 and 2018 were obtained from Korean National Health Insurance Service database. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) were calculated to compare HCC incidence. A poisson regression model was used to predict the future incidence of HCC.
The average crude incidence rate (CR) was 22.4 per 100,000 person-years, and the average ASR was 17.6 per 100,000 person-years between 2008 and 2018. The CR (from 23.9 to 21.2 per 100,000 person-years) and ASR (from 21.9 to 14.3 per 100,000 person-years) of HCC incidence decreased during the past ten years in all age groups, except in the elderly. The ASR of patients aged ≥80 years increased significantly (from 70.0 to 160.2/100,000 person-years; average annual percent change, +9.00%; P<0.001). The estimated CR (17.9 per 100,000 person-years) and ASR (9.7 per 100,000 person-years) of HCC incidence in 2028 was declined, but the number of HCC patients aged ≥80 years in 2028 will be quadruple greater than the number of HCC patients in 2008 (from 521 to 2,055), comprising 21.3% of all HCC patients in 2028.
The ASRs of HCC in Korea have gradually declined over the past 10 years, but the number, CR, and ASR are increasing in patients aged ≥80 years.
Data from patients with newly diagnosed HCC between 2008 and 2018 were obtained from Korean National Health Insurance Service database. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) were calculated to compare HCC incidence. A poisson regression model was used to predict the future incidence of HCC.
The average crude incidence rate (CR) was 22.4 per 100,000 person-years, and the average ASR was 17.6 per 100,000 person-years between 2008 and 2018. The CR (from 23.9 to 21.2 per 100,000 person-years) and ASR (from 21.9 to 14.3 per 100,000 person-years) of HCC incidence decreased during the past ten years in all age groups, except in the elderly. The ASR of patients aged ≥80 years increased significantly (from 70.0 to 160.2/100,000 person-years; average annual percent change, +9.00%; P<0.001). The estimated CR (17.9 per 100,000 person-years) and ASR (9.7 per 100,000 person-years) of HCC incidence in 2028 was declined, but the number of HCC patients aged ≥80 years in 2028 will be quadruple greater than the number of HCC patients in 2008 (from 521 to 2,055), comprising 21.3% of all HCC patients in 2028.
The ASRs of HCC in Korea have gradually declined over the past 10 years, but the number, CR, and ASR are increasing in patients aged ≥80 years.
摘要：
目的：全面分析肝细胞癌（HCC）的发病率趋势对于规划公共卫生计划很重要。我们旨在分析韩国肝癌发病率超过10年的趋势，并预测2028年的发病率。
方法：来自2008年至2018年新诊断HCC患者的数据来自韩国国家健康保险服务数据库。计算年龄标准化发病率（ASRs）以比较HCC发病率。使用泊松回归模型来预测HCC的未来发病率。
结果：平均粗发病率（CR）为每100,000人年22.4，2008年至2018年，平均ASR为每10万人年17.6。在过去的十年中，所有年龄段的HCC发病率的CR（从23.9到21.2/100,000人年）和ASR（从21.9到14.3/100,000人年）下降。除了老年人。年龄≥80岁患者的ASR显着增加（从70.0增加到160.2/100,000人年；平均每年百分比变化，+9.00%;P<0.001)。估计的CR（17.9每100,000人年）和ASR（9.7每100,000人年）的HCC发病率在2028年下降，但是2028年≥80岁的HCC患者人数将比2008年的HCC患者人数多四倍（从521到2,055），2028年占所有HCC患者的21.3%。
结论：过去10年来，韩国HCC的ASR逐渐下降，但是号码,CR,年龄≥80岁的患者ASR升高。
方法：来自2008年至2018年新诊断HCC患者的数据来自韩国国家健康保险服务数据库。计算年龄标准化发病率（ASRs）以比较HCC发病率。使用泊松回归模型来预测HCC的未来发病率。
结果：平均粗发病率（CR）为每100,000人年22.4，2008年至2018年，平均ASR为每10万人年17.6。在过去的十年中，所有年龄段的HCC发病率的CR（从23.9到21.2/100,000人年）和ASR（从21.9到14.3/100,000人年）下降。除了老年人。年龄≥80岁患者的ASR显着增加（从70.0增加到160.2/100,000人年；平均每年百分比变化，+9.00%;P<0.001)。估计的CR（17.9每100,000人年）和ASR（9.7每100,000人年）的HCC发病率在2028年下降，但是2028年≥80岁的HCC患者人数将比2008年的HCC患者人数多四倍（从521到2,055），2028年占所有HCC患者的21.3%。
结论：过去10年来，韩国HCC的ASR逐渐下降，但是号码,CR,年龄≥80岁的患者ASR升高。
