Abstract：
One of the risks faced by habitat restoration practitioners is whether habitats included in restoration planning will be used by the target species or, conversely, whether habitats excluded from restoration planning would have benefited the target species. With the goal of providing a quantitative decision-making approach that represented varying levels of risk tolerance, we used multiple probability decision thresholds (PDT) to predict the range of occurrence for three anadromous fishes (Oncorhynchus spp.) in a watershed in southwestern Washington, USA. For each species, we compared the predicted range of occurrence to the distribution used for restoration planning and quantified the amount of habitat blocked by anthropogenic barriers. Coho salmon (O. kisutch) had the broadest predicted range of occurrence (3061.6-6357.9 km; 0.75-0.25 PDT), followed by steelhead trout (O. mykiss; 1828.8-2836.8 km) and chum salmon (O. keta; 1373.9-1629.1 km). For each species, the predicted range of occurrence was similar or greater than the distribution used for restoration planning, suggesting that the current plan may exclude habitats that would benefit each species. Coho salmon had the greatest percentage of habitat blocked by anthropogenic barriers, followed by steelhead trout and chum salmon, respectively. Modeling species distributions at multiple risk-tolerance scenarios acknowledges uncertainty in restoration planning and allows practitioners to weigh the ecological benefits and budgetary constraints when considering locations for restoration. To effectively communicate restoration science to support practitioners in decision-making, we developed an R Shiny application online user interface available at: https://shiny.wdfw-fish.us/ChehalisRiverBasinSalmonidRangeOfOccurence/.
摘要：
栖息地恢复从业者面临的风险之一是目标物种是否会使用包括在恢复规划中的栖息地，或者，相反,被排除在恢复计划之外的栖息地是否会使目标物种受益。为了提供一种代表不同风险承受能力的定量决策方法，我们使用多个概率决策阈值（PDT）来预测三种无水鱼（Oncorhynchusspp.)在华盛顿西南部的一个分水岭，美国。对于每个物种，我们将预测的发生范围与用于恢复计划的分布进行了比较，并量化了人为障碍阻塞的栖息地数量。Coho鲑鱼（O.kisutch)具有最广泛的预测发生范围(3061.6-6357.9公里；0.75-0.25PDT)，其次是钢头鳟鱼（O.mykiss；1828.8-2836.8公里）和鲑鱼（O.keta;1373.9-1629.1km）。对于每个物种，预测的发生范围与用于恢复计划的分布相似或更大，这表明目前的计划可能会排除有利于每个物种的栖息地。科霍鲑鱼的栖息地被人为障碍阻塞的比例最高，其次是硬头鳟鱼和鲑鱼，分别。在多个风险承受能力场景下对物种分布进行建模承认恢复计划中的不确定性，并允许从业者在考虑恢复位置时权衡生态效益和预算限制。为了有效地传达修复科学，以支持从业者的决策，我们开发了一个RShiny应用程序在线用户界面，网址为：https://shiny。wdfw-fish.美国/ChehalisRiverBasinSalmonidRangeOfocurrence/。
