PDF(Pubmed)
Abstract：
Heat-related mortality is an increasingly important public health burden that is expected to worsen with climate change. In addition to long-term trends, there are also interannual variations in heat-related mortality that are of interest for efficient planning of health services. Large-scale climate patterns have an important influence on summer weather and therefore constitute important tools to understand and predict the variations in heat-related mortality.
UNASSIGNED: In this article, we propose to model summer heat-related mortality using seven climate indices through a two-stage analysis using data covering the period 1981-2018 in two metropolitan areas of the province of Québec (Canada): Montréal and Québec. In the first stage, heat attributable fractions are estimated through a time series regression design and distributed lag nonlinear specification. We consider different definitions of heat. In the second stage, estimated attributable fractions are predicted using climate index curves through a functional linear regression model.
UNASSIGNED: Results indicate that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation is the best predictor of heat-related mortality in both Montréal and Québec and that it can predict up to 20% of the interannual variability.
UNASSIGNED: We found evidence that one climate index is predictive of summer heat-related mortality. More research is needed with longer time series and in different spatial contexts. The proposed analysis and the results may nonetheless help public health authorities plan for future mortality related to summer heat.
UNASSIGNED: In this article, we propose to model summer heat-related mortality using seven climate indices through a two-stage analysis using data covering the period 1981-2018 in two metropolitan areas of the province of Québec (Canada): Montréal and Québec. In the first stage, heat attributable fractions are estimated through a time series regression design and distributed lag nonlinear specification. We consider different definitions of heat. In the second stage, estimated attributable fractions are predicted using climate index curves through a functional linear regression model.
UNASSIGNED: Results indicate that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation is the best predictor of heat-related mortality in both Montréal and Québec and that it can predict up to 20% of the interannual variability.
UNASSIGNED: We found evidence that one climate index is predictive of summer heat-related mortality. More research is needed with longer time series and in different spatial contexts. The proposed analysis and the results may nonetheless help public health authorities plan for future mortality related to summer heat.
摘要：
与热相关的死亡率是越来越重要的公共卫生负担，预计随着气候变化而恶化。除了长期趋势，与热相关的死亡率也存在年际变化，这对有效规划卫生服务很有意义。大规模的气候模式对夏季天气有重要影响，因此构成了了解和预测与热有关的死亡率变化的重要工具。
UNASSIGNED：在本文中，我们建议通过两阶段分析，使用七个气候指数对夏季与热有关的死亡率进行建模，使用涵盖1981-2018年期间的数据，在魁北克（加拿大）的两个大都市地区：蒙特利尔和魁北克。在第一阶段,通过时间序列回归设计和分布滞后非线性规范来估计热归因分数。我们考虑不同的热定义。在第二阶段,通过函数线性回归模型，使用气候指数曲线预测估计的可归属分数。
UNASSIGNED：结果表明，大西洋年代际振荡是蒙特利尔和魁北克与热有关的死亡率的最佳预测指标，并且可以预测高达20％的年际变化。
UNASSIGNED：我们发现了一个气候指数可以预测夏季高温相关死亡率的证据。对于更长的时间序列和不同的空间环境，需要更多的研究。然而，拟议的分析和结果可能有助于公共卫生当局规划与夏季炎热相关的未来死亡率。
UNASSIGNED：在本文中，我们建议通过两阶段分析，使用七个气候指数对夏季与热有关的死亡率进行建模，使用涵盖1981-2018年期间的数据，在魁北克（加拿大）的两个大都市地区：蒙特利尔和魁北克。在第一阶段,通过时间序列回归设计和分布滞后非线性规范来估计热归因分数。我们考虑不同的热定义。在第二阶段,通过函数线性回归模型，使用气候指数曲线预测估计的可归属分数。
UNASSIGNED：结果表明，大西洋年代际振荡是蒙特利尔和魁北克与热有关的死亡率的最佳预测指标，并且可以预测高达20％的年际变化。
UNASSIGNED：我们发现了一个气候指数可以预测夏季高温相关死亡率的证据。对于更长的时间序列和不同的空间环境，需要更多的研究。然而，拟议的分析和结果可能有助于公共卫生当局规划与夏季炎热相关的未来死亡率。
