PDF(Pubmed)
Abstract：
With the frequent occurrence of various emergency events, emergency decision making (EDM) has become an important research focus recently and many studies have been conducted to decrease the negative impact of emergencies. Normally, it is essential for decision makers to make satisfactory and reasonable emergency decisions in the shortest possible time as inappropriate decisions may result in enormous economic losses and serious social consequences. To ensure that an emergency response can be made efficiently, we propose a new EDM method by integrating regret theory and evaluation based on distance from average solution (EDAS) method within the 2-tuple spherical linguistic environment. First, the 2-tuple spherical linguistic term sets (TSLTSs) are employed by decision makers to express their uncertain and vague evaluation information on emergency alternatives. Then, an integrated EDM method based on regret theory and EDAS method is proposed to rank emergency alternatives and find out the optimal one. Besides, the criteria importance through inter-criteria correlation (CRITIC) method is used to determine criteria weights objectively in the EDM process. Finally, the proposed regret theory-EDAS method is applied to select the optimal response solution for a public health emergency in China. The superiority and practicality of the designed method are further justified through a comparative analysis with other EDM methods.
摘要：
随着各种突发事件的频繁发生,应急决策（EDM）已成为近年来的一个重要研究热点，许多研究已经进行了减少突发事件的负面影响。通常,决策者必须在尽可能短的时间内做出令人满意和合理的紧急决策，因为不适当的决策可能会造成巨大的经济损失和严重的社会后果。为了确保能够有效地做出应急响应，我们通过在2元组球形语言环境中集成遗憾理论和基于平均解距离（EDAS）方法的评估，提出了一种新的EDM方法。首先,2元组球形语言术语集（TSLTS）被决策者用来表达他们对紧急替代方案的不确定和模糊的评估信息。然后，提出了一种基于后悔理论和EDAS方法的集成EDM方法，对应急方案进行排序并找出最优方案。此外,通过标准间相关性（CRITIC）方法的标准重要性用于在EDM过程中客观地确定标准权重。最后,本文将后悔理论-EDAS方法应用于我国突发公共卫生事件的最优响应方案的选择。通过与其他电火花加工方法的比较分析，进一步证明了所设计方法的优越性和实用性。
