PDF(Pubmed)
Abstract：
Pakistan is included in top 50 countries which are estimated to face serious agriculture and food deficiency related challenges due to the worldwide pandemic coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19). The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of COVID-19 on food supply chain and agriculture in Punjab, Pakistan, by using space-time scan statistic (STSS). A survey was conducted at 720 points in different districts of the province. The STSS detected \"active\" and emerging clusters that are current at the end of our study area-particularly, 17 clusters were formed while adding the updated case data. Software ArcGIS 10.3 was used to find relative risk (RR) values; the maximum RR value was found to be 42.19 and maximum observed cases 53,265 during June 15-July 1, 2020. It was not always necessary that if the number of active cases in Punjab increased, there should be higher relative risk for more number of districts and vice versa. Due to the highest number of cases of COVID-19 and RR values during July, mostly farmers faced many difficulties during the cultivation of cotton and rice. Mostly farmers (72%) observed increase in prices of inputs (fertilizers and pesticides) during lockdown. If the supply chain of agriculture related inputs is disturbed, farmers may find it quite difficult to access markets, which could result in a decline in production and sales of crops and livestock in study area. It is suggested that to protect the food security and to decrease the effect of the lockdown, Punjab government needs to review food policy and analyse how market forces will respond to the imbalanced storage facilities and capacity, supply and demand and price control of products. The findings of this study can also help policy-makers to formulate an effective food security and agriculture adaptation strategy.
摘要：
巴基斯坦被列入前50名国家，据估计，由于2019年全球大流行冠状病毒(COVID-19)，这些国家将面临与农业和粮食短缺相关的严重挑战。这项研究的目的是评估COVID-19对旁遮普邦食品供应链和农业的影响，巴基斯坦,通过使用时空扫描统计(STSS)。在该省不同地区的720个地点进行了调查。STSS检测到“活跃”和新兴的集群，这些集群在我们的研究区域结束时是当前的-特别是，在添加更新的病例数据的同时形成17个聚类。ArcGIS10.3软件用于查找相对风险（RR）值；在2020年6月15日至7月1日期间，最大RR值为42.19，最大观察到的病例为53,265。如果旁遮普邦的活跃病例数量增加，并不总是必要的，更多的地区应该有更高的相对风险，反之亦然。由于7月份COVID-19病例和RR值最高，大多数农民在种植棉花和水稻期间面临许多困难。大多数农民（72％）在封锁期间观察到投入（化肥和农药）价格上涨。如果农业相关投入的供应链受到干扰，农民可能会发现很难进入市场，这可能导致研究区农作物和牲畜的生产和销售下降。建议保护粮食安全和减少封锁的效果，旁遮普省政府需要审查粮食政策，并分析市场力量将如何应对不平衡的储存设施和容量，产品的供求和价格控制。这项研究的结果还可以帮助决策者制定有效的粮食安全和农业适应战略。
