PDF(Pubmed)
Abstract：
Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, two mainstream guidelines for defining when to end the isolation of SARS-CoV-2-infected individuals have been in use: the one-size-fits-all approach (i.e. patients are isolated for a fixed number of days) and the personalized approach (i.e. based on repeated testing of isolated patients). We use a mathematical framework to model within-host viral dynamics and test different criteria for ending isolation. By considering a fixed time of 10 days since symptom onset as the criterion for ending isolation, we estimated that the risk of releasing an individual who is still infectious is low (0-6.6%). However, this policy entails lengthy unnecessary isolations (4.8-8.3 days). In contrast, by using a personalized strategy, similar low risks can be reached with shorter prolonged isolations. The obtained findings provide a scientific rationale for policies on ending the isolation of SARS-CoV-2-infected individuals.
摘要：
自从COVID-19大流行开始以来，定义何时终止SARS-CoV-2感染者的隔离的两个主流指南已经被使用:一刀切的方法(即患者被隔离固定天数)和个性化方法(即基于对隔离患者的重复测试).我们使用数学框架来对宿主内病毒动力学进行建模，并测试结束隔离的不同标准。通过考虑自症状发作以来10天的固定时间作为结束隔离的标准，我们估计释放仍有传染性的个体的风险较低(0-6.6%)。然而,这项政策需要长时间不必要的隔离(4.8-8.3天)。相比之下,通过使用个性化策略，类似的低风险可以达到较短的长时间隔离。获得的发现为终止SARS-CoV-2感染个体隔离的政策提供了科学依据。
