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Abstract：
We observed substantial differences in predicted Major Histocompatibility Complex II (MHCII) epitope presentation of SARS-CoV-2 proteins for different populations but only minor differences in predicted MHCI epitope presentation. A comparison of this predicted epitope MHC-coverage revealed for the early phase of infection spread (till day 15 after reaching 128 observed infection cases) highly significant negative correlations with the case fatality rate. Specifically, this was observed in different populations for MHC class II presentation of the viral spike protein (p-value: 0.0733 for linear regression), the envelope protein (p-value: 0.023), and the membrane protein (p-value: 0.00053), indicating that the high case fatality rates of COVID-19 observed in some countries seem to be related with poor MHC class II presentation and hence weak adaptive immune response against these viral envelope proteins. Our results highlight the general importance of the SARS-CoV-2 structural proteins in immunological control in early infection spread looking at a global census in various countries and taking case fatality rate into account. Other factors such as health system and control measures become more important after the early spread. Our study should encourage further studies on MHCII alleles as potential risk factors in COVID-19 including assessment of local populations and specific allele distributions.
摘要：
我们观察到不同人群的SARS-CoV-2蛋白的预测主要组织相容性复合物II（MHCII）表位呈递存在实质性差异，但预测的MHCI表位呈递仅存在微小差异。这种预测的表位MHC覆盖率的比较显示，感染传播的早期阶段（直到达到128例观察到的感染病例后的第15天）与病死率呈高度显着负相关。具体来说,这是在不同群体中观察到的MHCII类呈递的病毒刺突蛋白（p值：0.0733线性回归），包膜蛋白（p值：0.023），和膜蛋白（p值：0.00053），这表明在一些国家观察到的COVID-19的高病死率似乎与MHCII类呈递不良有关，因此对这些病毒包膜蛋白的适应性免疫反应较弱。我们的结果强调了SARS-CoV-2结构蛋白在早期感染传播中的免疫控制中的普遍重要性，这是各国进行的全球人口普查并考虑了病死率的结果。其他因素如卫生系统和控制措施在早期传播后变得更加重要。我们的研究应鼓励进一步研究MHCII等位基因作为COVID-19的潜在危险因素，包括评估当地人群和特定等位基因分布。
