关键词: Ecological risk assessment Ecosystem services value Hubei Province Sharpe ratio Uncertainty

来  源:   DOI:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140126   PDF(Sci-hub)

Abstract:
In the context of rapid urbanization, ecosystem services (ES) losses pose serious threats to sustainability. How to assess ecological risk based on ES value (ESV) has become an urgent problem for sustainable urbanization. However, existing regional ecological risk assessment frameworks ignore important elements, such as the assessment endpoint and uncertainty, weakening their reliability and practicability. In this study, a regional ecological risk assessment framework integrating ESV and uncertainty was proposed by introducing a classical financial indicator, the Sharpe Ratio. We take Hubei Province, Central China as a case and implemented the spatially explicit risk assessment approach based on the methods of the Markov-logistic-CA model, adjusted-based equivalent factor evaluation model, and geographic information system. The results showed that the distribution of expected ecological returns and corresponding uncertainties at county level had a remarkable spatial heterogeneity, and the assessed ecological risk index in Eastern and Western Hubei was higher than that in Central Hubei, indicating that counties in Central Hubei are the priority areas for ecological risk control. Moreover, the expansion of built-up land had the most significant effect on regional ecological risk. This regional ecological risk framework can well integrate the assessment endpoint and dynamic processes of ecological risk. Our assessment framework has potential practical value for ecological risk control and land use planning on ecosystems.
摘要:
在快速城市化的背景下,生态系统服务(ES)损失对可持续性构成严重威胁。如何基于ES值(ESV)对生态风险进行评估已成为可持续城镇化亟待解决的问题。然而,现有的区域生态风险评估框架忽略了重要因素,如评估终点和不确定性,削弱了其可靠性和实用性。在这项研究中,通过引入经典的财务指标,提出了一个整合ESV和不确定性的区域生态风险评估框架,夏普比率。我们以湖北省为例,华中地区为案例,实施了基于Markov-logistic-CA模型的空间显式风险评估方法,基于调整的等效因子评价模型,和地理信息系统。结果表明,县级预期生态收益的分布及其不确定性具有显著的空间异质性,湖北东部和西部的生态风险指数高于湖北中部,说明鄂中各县是生态风险控制的重点区域。此外,建设用地扩张对区域生态风险的影响最为显著。该区域生态风险框架可以很好地整合生态风险的评估终点和动态过程。我们的评估框架对生态系统的生态风险控制和土地利用规划具有潜在的实用价值。
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