Predicting turning point, duration and attack rate of COVID-19 outbreaks in major Western countries.

预测转折点 ，主要西方国家 COVID - 19 疫情持续时间和发病率。

• 影响指数: 9.922
• 发表时间: Jun 2020
• 来源期刊: Chaos Solitons Fractals
• DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109829
• PMID: 32313405
• 文章类型: Journal Article
• 作者列表: Zhang X,Ma R,Wang L

关键词: Attack rate; COVID-19 pandemic; Poisson regression; Turning point

Abstract

In this paper, we employed a segmented Poisson model to analyze the available daily new cases data of the COVID-19 outbreaks in the six Western countries of the Group of Seven, namely, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, UK and USA. We incorporated the governments\' interventions (stay-at-home advises/orders, lockdowns, quarantines and social distancing) against COVID-19 into consideration. Our analysis allowed us to make a statistical prediction on the turning point (the time that the daily new cases peak), the duration (the period that the outbreak lasts) and the attack rate (the percentage of the total population that will be infected over the course of the outbreak) for these countries.

摘要

在本文中,我们采用分段泊松模型来分析七国集团六个西方国家现有的每日新病例数据，即,加拿大,法国,德国,意大利,英国和美国。我们纳入了政府的干预措施(留在家里的建议/命令，封锁,隔离和社会距离)考虑对COVID-19的影响。我们的分析使我们能够对转折点（每日新病例达到峰值的时间）进行统计预测，这些国家的持续时间(疫情持续的时期)和攻击率(在疫情期间将被感染的总人口的百分比)。