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Abstract：
Tobacco smoking, a major cancer risk factor, is very common in Germany as in many other high-income countries. Few studies have assessed the burden of tobacco-associated cancer incidence in the German population. We calculated the proportion of cancers attributable to tobacco smoking to estimate the burden of tobacco-associated cancer in 1999 and 2008. Smoking prevalence was determined from national surveys of a representative sample of the German population in 1998 and 2008-2011, and data on relative risks were obtained from meta-analyses. Cancer incidence for the years 1999 and 2008 was estimated by the German Centre for Cancer Registry Data at the Robert Koch Institute. We estimate that 72,208 incident cancer cases were attributable to tobacco smoking in Germany in 2008, an increase of >6,200 cases over 1999 levels. Among the cases in 2008 were 55,057 cases among men (22.8% (95% CI, 21.3-24.1) of all new cases) and 17,151 cases among women (7.9% (95% CI, 7.21-8.68) of all new cases). The highest proportions attributable to smoking were estimated for cancer of the lung, larynx, pharynx and the lower urinary tract. Tobacco smoking is currently responsible for more than one in five cancer cases among men and nearly 1 in 12 among women. Considering the increasing trends in cancer incidence and, until very recently, rising prevalence of smoking among women, it can be expected that the number of tobacco-attributable cancer cases will rise further.
摘要：
吸烟,一个主要的癌症危险因素，与许多其他高收入国家一样，在德国非常普遍。很少有研究评估德国人群中烟草相关癌症发病率的负担。我们计算了1999年和2008年吸烟导致的癌症比例，以估计烟草相关癌症的负担。吸烟率是根据1998年和2008-2011年德国人口代表性样本的国家调查确定的，相对风险数据来自荟萃分析。1999年和2008年的癌症发病率由罗伯特·科赫研究所的德国癌症登记数据中心估计。我们估计，2008年德国有72,208例癌症病例归因于吸烟，比1999年增加了>6,200例。在2008年的病例中，男性为55,057例（所有新病例的22.8％（95％CI，21.3-24.1）），女性为17,151例（所有新病例的7.9％（95％CI，7.21-8.68））。肺癌估计可归因于吸烟的最高比例，喉部,咽部和下尿路。目前，吸烟导致男性中有五分之一以上的癌症病例，女性中有近四分之一的癌症病例。考虑到癌症发病率的上升趋势,直到最近,女性吸烟率上升，可以预期，由烟草引起的癌症病例将进一步增加。
